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Comment by somenewaccount1 | Hacker News Reader

idk. the fact that the price had already sunk nearly 40% from his price over this period could clearly indicate that his assumption isn't without merit.

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Only if you don’t bother to take a look at the rest of the market.

But for Musk's machinations, said stock price would not be down 40%. He caused the stock to drop.

I'd say the tech sector getting routed played a bigger part. It's not like Twitter dropping 40% (for any reason) is exceptional amonst all the other stocks that dropped 20-60% over the last year.

I guess if public investors 100% believed Musk would pay, the stock should sit at $44 billion. I guess if Musk is forced to close or to pay equivalent damages, the value will jump back to that in the end.

Exactly. Plenty of people willing to profit off the arbitrage if he's actually going to be forced to buy twitter at the original amount.

The current price ($32) reflects be probably won't.

Price changes due to macroeconomic circumstances are explicitly listed in the contract as not being grounds to get out of the deal.

I’m telling you, the guy really signed an ironclad contract forcing him to pay $44B to buy Twitter.

If the share price is lower than $54.20, it’s because the market doesn’t believe the sale will be completed. The difference between $54.20 and the current share price represents the probability of the transaction falling through.

Twitter has done nothing to impede the transaction, so any uncertainty (and thus decline in TWTR share price below $54.20) is due to the actions of the buyer, who is… Elon Musk.

Therefore, Elon is responsible for any decline in the share price since the purchase agreement was signed.

maybe if he can prove that his bot claims, and claims about twitter's willful fraud, are both true, and the reason everybody sold

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