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Comment by brentm | Hacker News Reader

I've been in and out of crypto since 2014 or so but I've never been more bearish than 2021. When the majority of my Twitter feed became visionaries predicting web3 it all seemed destined for pain.

There are billions of reasons to embrace the idea of a platform shift but when everyone can see it coming a mile away they're probably either wrong or a deep trough of sorrow away from it working out.

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You've never been more bearish than when the highest number of developers and builders are working on crypto?

I don't know why number of people working on an idea has bearing on the quality of the idea. An insane number of people were working on things that didn't pan out during the dotcom bust too.

It's more indicative of the amount of money in the system imo and the reason there's money in the system is because some powerful VCs really would like the transition of power from classical finance to their newly minted financial system. Then the rest hopped on the bandwagon.

People working in this doesn't necessarily translate to future progress. You can confusing lead and lag indicators. Some people enthusiastically using a product and ready to pay money for it, is a lead indicator. A lot of people working on solution for a problem that does not exist is no indicator at all.

Bearish in terms of the price of the assets at the time/medium term, not necessarily on the technology in the long term.

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