Car wars: Analyst predicts GM, Ford will surpass Tesla EV sales by 2025 | Hacker News Reader

Car wars: Analyst predicts GM, Ford will surpass Tesla EV sales by 2025

detroitnews.com

38 pointsMilnerRoute66 comments

I’ve long suspected that there is nothing terribly special about Tesla. They were simply the only EV brand. People didn’t have much choice if they wanted an EV. They succeeded so much because they sold EVs.

Yes the Leaf and Bolt exist but they’re not exactly close to Model 3 performance. And not well known at all compared to Tesla.

Without the edge of being the “only” company with EVs is there any reason to think they’ll be big much longer? I’m not saying they’ll go out of business. But they may end up more Genesis than Ford.

They have some advantages like they seems to have the most efficient tech, they’re best at OTA updates, and have a relatively strong battery supply ready.

But is that enough given they’ll be competing against EVs from the entire industry?

We’re about to find out.

My guess is that Tesla will get bogged down by maintenance of cars that get older. It seems they have saved a lot of money by not setting up a service network but at some point they probably have to provide service and parts.

Extremely limited anecdotal evidence:

I recently talked to half a dozen contractors and they were much more excited about Rivian than Ford F-150 Lightning, citing a bad track record from Ford's new automotive hardware. They'd be open to F-150 after a few design iterations work out the kinks.

What they wouldn't consider was CyberTruck.

Electric pickup trucks will be a huge market, and Tesla doesn't seem to have a product for contractors and builders.

That seems a little odd to me that you would trust a completely brand new company that has no track record over a not-perfect track record from a major manufacturer. Que sera.

The CyberTruck thing makes sense. All though at this point I wonder if we ever see it at all (in something similar to its current form/promised specs).

But that is a HUGE chunk of the American market. Ford is there, I saw one on the road earlier this week. Others like Chevy are coming.

>I recently talked to half a dozen contractors and they were much more excited about Rivian

Ah yes, the Rivian truck that may never see the light of day versus the EV built on the best selling vehicle platform in North America that's for sale today (albeit at inflated prices), built by a 100+ year old company.

How many of these contractors have been around beyond the housing-bubble-du-jour?

I don't understand the "may never see the light of day" comment. I saw a Rivian in the parking lot just this week.

They will come, but it's going to take time for Rivian to scale up.

I’ve seen a few on the road. They exist in the wild.

Will Rivian be with us long? I don’t know. Law of averages makes it seem unlikely.

But it’s not pure vaporware like the CyberTruck or some of the other EV companies like Nikola.

> They'd be open to F-150 after a few design iterations work out the kinks.

Ford already fired those engineers. I don't think there will be much more coming out from Ford other than Bankruptcy. Not sure how long they can last loosing a billion dollars a month.

I am not buying this anecdote I will go with ford

Anecdotal, but I've been trying to buy an EV for the last couple of days. I've been to 4 dealerships. As a first-order approximation, everyone's out of everything. Around here, seems like someone could win just by having inventory. As if that were possible.

That's all cars currently, unless you want something very odd, with a lot of features that are tacked on to increase price.

Yet I see new model stuff all over the roads where I am, despite cursory searching feeling similarly futile. Did these people have great foresight, pay out the nose, both, or …?

Both - car dealerships are accepting pre-orders, but some of them basically run an auction. With some luck, you can find something you want without paying too much.

I know couple of people who very recently took delivery new cars, but they'd ordered them in September and April of last year.

The big problem is that they’re run by an egotist who thinks he’s the hero in a 90s sci-fi novel. His antics directly turn off some buyers but most of the people I hear passing on them are pointing to basic quality control and things like the UI (touchscreens are terrible, moving controls is even worse).

I think they’d have been a lot better positioned now if he’d handed operations over to someone with better attention to detail. Say what you will about their other problems, the big car makers learned that you can’t skimp on quality without facing devastation like Detroit in the 80s and 90s.

He open sourced tesla designs so that competitors could learn from and surpass tesla if tesla stood still. The goal wasn't to be the sole ev car company, the goal was to help the world get off of fossil fuel burning cars. Go ahead and call him an egoist if you want, but that sounds pretty altruistic and the world is a better place because of his actions.

It seems like he's betting Tesla or at least its high stock price on full self drive.

Unfortunately I think FSD is probably harder than flying Starship, fully reusing it, and building a base on the Moon. FSD might even be harder than landing humans on Mars.

It's a totally different kind of problem though. It's the kind where getting 90% of the way there is 10% of the work and getting the other 10% of the way there is 90% of the work. Problem is that 90% there results in the tons of embarrassing FSD beta YouTube videos you see.

He could also be thinking that the future of tesla doesn't matter as much as the future of humanity and he took the action because it was in the best interest of humanity.

Look, I’m not saying he’s satan — just that a lot of basic stuff seems to be getting ignored while he’s chasing public attention, and the competition is not sitting still.

I think you fell for his marketing.

"More importantly, Tesla’s open source patent strategy came with conditions. If an automotive OEM wants to use Tesla’s patented technology, it must agree to Tesla’s Patent Pledge, which requires, among other things, that the OEM agree that it will not sue Tesla for patent infringement nor challenge the validity of any Tesla patent. Put another way, by signing the Tesla Patent Pledge, an automotive OEM effectively gives Tesla the right to use technology within the scope of the OEMs patent portfolio. If an automotive OEM doesn’t agree to the Patent Pledge, Tesla can still enforce its patents against the automotive OEM."

https://startupnation.com/manage-your-business/teslas-open-s...

So it's an open offer to sign bilateral patent pledges. Sounds fairly fair to me. They could not even have that on offer, and as one of the pioneer EV companies with probably many essential patents, left the rest of the EV industry beholden to Tesla's patent licensing costs or blockages for +25 years.

Do you think it would be beneficial to everyone to let self-interested car companies learn from tesla patents, improve upon them, patent the new designs and lock out other companies from using those newly generated patents? It seems like a pragmatic way to foster a healthy, open, and bright ev future.

I think you're confusing Elon's honesty with Ego. I don't think he even knows how to lie. His goals have been met so accurately that I think he out does Aldus Huxley as a prophet. My Model Y is elegant, has better detail/fit/finish than any other car brand I've seen. It makes my 320HP Camaro feel like a golf cart. The lack of buttons screaming "I want to break and cost you all kinds of $$$" is zen. Driving at night without all kinds of gauges shining light on you so less fatiguing. The active safety features already saved my wife from getting into a typically fatal collision (getting hit head on by a car doing 80-90MPH running a red light). Have you seen what Tesla has accomplished over the last 15 years? Saying they'd be better off with someone else shows how clueless you are about Tesla.

> the big car makers learned that you can’t skimp on quality without facing devastation like Detroit in the 80s and 90s.

How do you explain the number of recalls Ford and GM are having on their new vehicles? Ford has numerous cars/truck that are at like 9 or 10 serious recalls in the last year. Engines blowing up, transmissions blowing up, brakes going out. "The big car manufacturers" only learned to cut so many corners that they make trash now. They're loosing serious money even on their ICE vehicles; the figures show Ford is loosing over a billion dollars a month so far this year.

Okay, I get that you’re a fan. I also see frequent reports of quality failures ranging from fit and finish issues to car fires, not to mention FSD being years behind the original promises.

My point is simply that it seems like their reputation has been going in exactly the wrong direction for a hotly competitive market, and it looks like they need a combination of someone better at execution and more hesitant to promise things like FSD which aren’t anywhere close to being ready.

> I think you're confusing Elon's honesty with Ego. I don't think he even knows how to lie.

Musk has a loose association with the truth.

He's been lying continuously about full self-driving: https://jalopnik.com/elon-musk-promises-full-self-driving-ne...

5 years ago Tesla claimed to have the "hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver". That was a lie: https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-tesla-cars-being-produced-now...

Elon claimed Vernon Unsworth was a pedophile. That was a lie. Worse, Elon weakly tried to claim the term "pedo guy" doesn't mean "pedophile": https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-pedo-guy-doesnt-mean-p...

Elon continues to lie about founding Tesla: https://www.tesla.com/elon-musk

Elon wasn't a founder of Tesla: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/06/tesla-founders-martin-eberha...

In a recent sycophantic interview Musk pathetically tried to redefine the term "founder" to mean someone essential to the company: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iHmSrK238vI&t=2358s

It's sad that he can't even be honest about simple factual matters.

I am saying that they will go out of business. They have invested in a lot of property assuming that their market share of EVs will continue to stay high, and EVs will have strong growth. So far, this has been true, but it won't be for long.

I’ve been saying this for a long time and always being laughed at.

Tesla may still have an advantage in the battery tech but the Tesla machine is no match to established „legacy” (heh) manufacturers who have much better dealership and service network.

They also have the plants. If they can get batteries they can scale faster.

What’s going to happen faster? Tesla building an entire new factory? Or VW converting a factory from ICE to EV?

I know Tesla has a few factories in progress now. But even if demand sticks grows they may not be able to meet it as fast.

There’s that. And then there’s how fast „legacy” manufacturers can get their shit together. Look at Porsche. They rolled out a complete Taycan factory at €700m within a year or so [1]. No slips, no mess like what happened with Tesla in Brandenburg.

[1]: okay, under 48 months: https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/2019/09/Porsche_opens_f..., https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=X1j6rHBoePw.

IMO the dealership network isn't really the issue, it's the lack of available parts, lack of repairability in their designs, like the battery pack, a lack of repair manuals for third party shops to adopt, choosing designs that break really easily (like the model X falcon doors) and not having physical buttons for safety reasons.

But these are all fixable problems. Good parts availability and a good repair manual set will create a service network very fast, and dealerships are frankly annoying as fuck.

The problem I always had with Tesla is that their cars don’t feel like they deserve the money they cost. You pay a 100K for a Model S and it doesn’t feel like a 100k car. Even if you compare it with a Mercedes at half its price, assuming that half the price goes to batteries and R&D, it still feels subpar. So my guess is that now that traditional manufacturers get into the game Tesla’s value is going to drop significantly.

The problem I have with Tesla is that their onboard infotainment system sucks compared to a $20K car with CarPlay integration…

I sort of understand what they’re doing. Companies like to control their product and not hand it off to someone else. In many ways that’s what putting a big CarPlay rectangle on the screen is.

But… I won’t buy a car without CarPlay. I’ve used it, I love it, I want it. Ive heard owners say Bluetooth is fine or native Spotify is better or they like the Tesla controls. Ok. Not my style.

Apple said at WWDC something like 79% of new car buyers won’t buy a car without CarPlay. That’s a big liability when basically all the competing EVs are offering it.

Tesla can add it of course.

But it’s a big omission.

"Apple said at WWDC something like 79% of new car buyers won’t buy a car without CarPlay." - Assumes 79% of new car buyers own iphones! is it really that much or are they including people who also use android auto ?

They were asked. They did not mean that those people wanted CarPlay or Android Auto. They really meant CarPlay.

Now I know that like 97% of cars that support one support both.

It kind of makes sense. We know that the more money someone has the more likely they are to have an iPhone. We also know that the average new car in the US is more expensive than it’s ever been. Looks like it’s at $47,000. If you can afford that, it stands to reason you might have an iPhone too based on demographic.

I suppose that would mean Android owners are more likely to buy used cars.

As an Apple fan… I was floored at that number. It seemed too high to me too. But I haven’t seen any articles refute it.

Either way. Even if it was a total mistake and actually meant “or Android Auto“ that’s a problem for Tesla.

About the only comment on this page I agree with

The Model 3 Performance we got a few years ago was worth every penny. Fit and finish not great, but the performance and overall experience are basically like a supercar. For 60K. No maintenance other than wheels and tires. They still offer the most fun to drive EVs. That said we traded it for an e-tron S line. Not as zippy, but so much nicer and plenty fast. But I would defend that car at that price at that time to anyone. It was a great daily driver. No other car was close to it at the time. They /still/ beat the pants off other EVs on range and performance (at similar price points) today.

BMW i3 was more efficient, but is no longer made.

Performance is for the track, I don't need performance. I need trouble free operation.

> Without the edge of being the “only” company with EVs is there any reason to think they’ll be big much longer?

Many years of head-start in terms of experience/designs/scale-up etc with EVs, brand recognition, and in the US a charging station network.

Also, they're fully committed to EVs whereas most of the legacy manufacturers seem to be completely stuck at half-assing the transition at best. It feels like (with the exception of Volkswagen Group - includes Audi and Porsche) a few of the legacy competitors are starting now and many are not even seriously trying yet. The other competitors are newly founded companies. Everyone is playing catch-up while Tesla has delivered millions of EVs.

Tesla has also bet on massive scale from the beginning (i.e. high up front costs for lower costs per unit later) whereas other companies seem much more cautious. They are also not burdened with decades of organizational cruft and ICE-focused structures that have built up in the traditional companies.

Don’t forget about Hyundai/kia.

The Chinese automakers are going to be a significant factor in the industry in the late 20s/30s as well.

I don't know why, but Hyundai/Kia don't seem to have much presence/mindshare in Europe. I wasn't even aware that they're seriously investing in EVs before I stumbled across them while searching for sources for my post.

Agree that the Chinese ones will likely be huge too - they're new but they have a massive market and supply chains to back them, and eventually they'll make it across to the West.

> Tesla has also bet on massive scale from the beginning

According to the article being discussed, GM and Ford will have more scale in 2025. I think Volkswagen and at least on Chinese company likely will have, too.

The article also claims that Tesla stopped betting on scale (“Tesla didn't take greater advantage of the free money it could have gotten, raise much more, open capacity faster, grow much faster and shut the door. He didn't. He didn't move fast enough. He didn't recognize what was going on in the market. He had tremendous hubris that they would never catch him, they would never be able to do what he's doing, and they're doing it.”)

> and in the US a charging station network.

Brand exclusive chargers are dumb infrastructure and anti-driver. It's a good reason not to buy a Tesla (or a Rivian for that matter).

Tesla is (very) slowly wising up: https://www.theverge.com/2021/7/28/22596337/tesla-supercharg...

And is a bit wiser in Europe: https://www.theverge.com/2022/5/18/23125391/tesla-supercharg...

That EV F150 looks badass, I hope it lives up to the hype!

I just don't want to invest in something that should last me at LEAST one decade when the company behind it hasn't been around nearly as long as these legacy behemoths. Let alone the antics of Musk, to beat that dead horse some more.

There will be a Ford to run to in eight, twelve, thirty years that is well equipped to solve problems with your vehicle. Will there be a Tesla? Even if the service is hard to get, it's there.

Idk time to get downvoted by Tesla diehards lol. This isn't a hill I will die on, just how I feel about it all right now.

My experience with each of the Big 3 has been that they produce mediocre cars with awful service. I've never owned a Tesla, and I dunno if I ever will, but I'm certainly not repeating a mistake with Chrysler, GM or Ford no matter WHAT kind of motor they put in there. And it's because of this:

> There will be a Ford to run to in eight, twelve, thirty years that is well equipped to solve problems with your vehicle

There will likely be a network of dealers who are well-equipped, but probably not well-staffed. And the staff that are there are either not well-trained, or too-well-trained in the art of bullshit.

I have had a few gm evs and they are really great cars and I never take them to the shop except once for a recall, over 3 Cars. Much better than Porsche and Audis I have had and have, they cost a lot to run and are in the shop alot

Tesla does not spend money with advertisers, so "automotive news agencies" are always going to print articles like to to try to keep the money coming in. Tesla is the only [non Chinese] company to get massive mining contracts so they can build the millions and millions of cars that Austin and Berlin will each be making annually. All this while Ford and GM will be producing tens of thousands of EV's, which is as many as they can buy batteries from their supplier for. Ford and GM are claiming to spend billions on battery plants to make batteries that are already obsolete, and have no source for the raw materials to make these out-dated batteries. Ford/GM/Stalantis are dead and are going through the motions to get as many CEO paychecks and stock pricing going as possible until the next bailout. Rinse Repeat.

>Tesla does not spend money with advertisers, so "automotive news agencies" are always going to print articles like to to try to keep the money coming in.

Tesla doesn't spend money with traditional advertisers. They have a marketing budget, you can see it in their financials.

>Tesla is the only [non Chinese] company to get massive mining contracts

What "massive" mining contracts do they have?

>which is as many as they can buy batteries from their supplier for.

Tesla buys batteries from third parties like everyone else.

>Ford/GM/Stalantis are dead and are going through the motions to get as many CEO paychecks and stock pricing going as possible until the next bailout. Rinse Repeat.

Hyundai sold as many EVs last year as Tesla did in their first decade. Are you even paying attention?

> Hyundai sold as many EVs last year as Tesla did in their first decade. Are you even paying attention?

I see what you did there: comparing Hyundai's current numbers to Tesla's numbers from ten years ago (when they were a startup). I'm sure you could make a similar argument to make it sound like Barns and Nobels was beating the paints off Amazon.

For a more realistic comparison, Hyundai sold ~50K EVs in Q1 2022, and Tesla sold ~300K in the same period.

Tesla does massive conferences and reveal events. Not to mention, a significant chunk of Musk's personal and professional time is spent marketing Tesla (on Twitter or on media) to the levels rarely seen of CEOs - given his paycheck, that is a significant amount of marketing $.

Yeah, we'll see.

I'm not a Tesla fanboy, and I actually have a Bolt, which I love. But recent history is littered with, "Oh, as soon as some big company competes with Tesla, Tesla will suddenly lose" predictions. What we actually see is recalls for the Bolt and the Mustang Mach-E.

Tesla will clearly lose market share in EVs at some point. Will it fall way behind in the next three years? I personally doubt it.

So the reason he thinks this is because GM and ford have announced more "models".

At no point has the limiting factor been the number of models. The limiting factor is and will be battery cell supply.

This article makes no mention of legacy OEMs making any attempt at solving their supply constraints.

Yes, exactly!

Apple was once seen as destined to lose the smartphone market as everyone and their dog brought out an Android phone. Android phones were and are still cheaper and everywhere. But Apple still manages to make the large majority of profit in the smartphone market anyhow. Will Tesla follow the Apple model here with electric cars as the competition heats up? I am not sure.

So long as Tesla is still ramping up production rapidly and still selling out as quickly as they can produce cars I don’t think anyone will care. They may lose market share, but that’s hardly a problem if it’s due to other entrants in a rapidly growing market.

"Tesla's more than 70% market share in EVs could drop to closer to 11% in the next three years, as competition increases from legacy and startup competitors."

Also predicts EV adoption will be 20-25% in just a few years.

Now that I have one I get it. EVs are great. Between their inherent characteristics and the rising and unpredictable price of gas I can see a lot of people switching pretty fast, assuming production can keep up.

>Between their inherent characteristics and the rising and unpredictable price of gas

This is temporary, and likely why owning an EV now is such a good deal.

Do you think the government is just going to give away the tax dollars and energy providers the revenue for nothing? Once the transition to EV is complete, the travel cost per $ will be similar, in my opinion.

Did you mean cost per mile? Given that taxes are only a small portion of the cost of driving, costs could come down quite a bit while still giving the government their cut.

Many states are already adding additional taxes for EVs[0], its still significantly cheaper than gas annually. $50-$200 per year, vs $50-$200 per tank of gas.

Meanwhile, the feeling of driving an EV is so much smoother. The maintenance is so much cheaper. The lack of guilt, noise and smell makes me feel overall better.

The only problem with EVs is that they are still too expensive for most people.

[0] https://www.myev.com/research/interesting-finds/states-that-...

It might be that GM, and Ford, will sell more EVs than Tesla by 2025, which would mean people stopped purchasing Teslas. I didn't think it possible for GM or Ford to manufacture more EVs than Tesla by 2025, though.

Tesla has proven battery.

>GM, Ford will surpass

GM went with LG Chem and had to recall cars burning peoples homes/garages (cost $2 billion). Ford picked SK, good news there considering SK batteries ... are stolen LG technology and will probably also blow up https://cleantechnica.com/2021/02/15/itc-sides-with-lg-chem-...

Tesla went with Panasonic. If they own their battery technology, that is a recent development. They are a big fan of showing off Panasonic's technology as their own.

I mean, they're already third or fourth in Europe; it doesn't seem unreasonable that they'd fall behind in the US as well.

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