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I think you're using "downturn" differently.

GDP contraction won't last five years. But it will be longer than the GDP contraction before VC money becomes as easy as it was for the last five years.

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Easy money being available after five years is also uncertain. With covid shock, then global sanction following Russian invasion, and deglobalization following in the wake of these two events, global economy is faces serious uncertainty in coming years.

Also the low interest environment was unusual. We could have very easily have a booming market with much higher rates. Just look at the 90s.

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