I feel like I’m missing something.
I feel like I’m missing something.
Th sec is fine with a futures based etf but for some reason doesn’t want a Spot etf.
Which is strange because Canada has multiple spot etfs.
Some arguments for not allowing a spot wtf is that the futures markets are regulated and smaller currently so a futures based wtf can’t grow as big as a spot one at the moment.
Those aren’t great reasons because a lot of spot markets are now hosted by regulated companies like coin and gemini and the he sec said that futures based etfs can hold some of the Canadian spot etfs f they can’t get enough futures contracts
Greyscale wins here by losing as it means they continue to get 2% a year in assets where as a spot etf would charge under 1%.
The Discount to NAV trade continues on, with a 30% discount waiting to be unlocked.
Funny story about this fund and its NAV. It helped sink the fund 3AC.
In 2019 and 2020 it was a very crowded trade to give them BTC and get units back that were locked up for 6 months. The units at the time traded at a premium to its NAV( ie you gave 1,000,000 in BTC and got back units worth 1,200,000).
Now the NAV has inverted such that the cost per share is less than the btc it holds due to funds like 3AC trying to get their money out. Lots of funds have lost alot of money trading this fund around, and if it was allowed to convert to an ETF none of those losses would have happened, and yet the SEC wont' allow them to convert for some reason :(
Interesting it was at a 100% premium to assets not so long ago
Grayscale it looks like was trying to launch a product directly linked to spot bitcoin, holding them in some sort of trust? Maybe SEC had concerns about custody..
Also, Proshares has historically been a big player in the ETF space, whereas Grayscale has.. as far as I can tell, a single ETF with ~$7M in assets.
Intuitively I’d think they are wildly similar, or correlated, but I’m sure I don’t know enough here to understand why I’m wrong.
The thing is that if you are willing to bet on the price movement of a token, futures are a much more cost and capital efficient way to do so.
- Its more capital efficient because you can leverage futures. Say you want an exposure of $1000 on the price of BTC and only have access to a spot market. You would need to actually buy $1000 worth of BTC, or use margin (a loan basically, but the interests are prohibitive). With futures, you would just need to maintain the required margin amount depending on your preferred leverage, so you could get that $1000 BTC exposure with a post of $100. For the same exposure of $1000, futures allows you to use less capital, or conversely with the same capital, you can have more exposure with futures.
- Trading fees are much lower on futures, since this is mainly a virtual, exchange-owned instrument. There is often no actual movement of the underlying when trading futures, especially if everything is settled in cash. Futures trading fees are often significantly lower than spot.
These advantages of futures often lead them to have _much_ more liquidity than the actual spot market, which in turn means they are much more stable.
What we see often on small marketcap coins is that the ownership of tokens is opaque. Regularly, some whales (sometimes even unknowingly) dump huge amounts of the coin on the spot market, which leads to flash crashes until market makers can provide back some liquidity. This is very unlikely to happen on futures, since the liquidity is so much higher, dumping some millions worth in the market wouldn't dry out the book all that dramatically.
I did not check numbers recently, but just to give you a rough idea, the daily traded amount on uniswap (spot, decentralized) should be around $1B/day, Binance spot should be around $10B/day, and Binance perpetual futures around $40B/day.
Futures are mainly OK because there is no custody nor settlement of the underlying itself. Everything is settled in cash.
In this respect, cash settled (inverse) crypto futures could almost be considered as having no link whatshowever with crypto currencies. This fine point is actually what allowed brokers to propose crypto futures ahead of any regulation.
The earliest uses have been primarily agricultural, allowing farmers to sell grain in advance for cash now and use that cash to fund operations in order to grow the grain.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/cme-cf-cry...
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/cme-cf-cry...
By comparison, with Grayscale, who knows how custody works and what exchange exposure they may have.
CME Bitcoin futures are cash settled, it doesn’t settle in actual BTC.
Also, I wouldn't point to grayscale as an example of a good operator. Their Bitcoin trust is trading way below par.
Grayscale was applying to be a "physical" ETF, which would hold and buy and sell actual coins.