My perspective is perhaps coloured by being a political scientist: we have always (unlike the law professors) seen the supreme court in particular as a deeply political institution.

The present incumbents have made clear that they're open to reopening settled questions, and to a results-focused jurisprudence. Given that New York State Rifle and Pistol Association has just undercut state power in favour of constitutional interpretation while Dobbs goes entirely the other way, my presumption is that there are no major strictly federalist principles at play and results will be case-by-case. And, as with Bush v. Gore, they can always publish an opinion saying "this decision is confined to its own facts" if they want to signal that they're not intending to displace post-Lochner understandings of the commerce clause.