Biden officials privately doubt that Ukraine can win back all of its territory
cnn.com
cnn.com
Russia has committed the supreme international crime, twice. These are invitations to world war, that's a central determination of Nuremberg trials, why we have the U.N., Geneva Convention, both of which Russia is a party to, and torn up along with the Budapest Memorandum.
There's is no one to negotiate with. We can't trust Russia to stick to any agreements. Any agreements is a delay.
Since all roads lead to world war, the ensuing cognitive dissonance produces hope it can be delayed, while strangling Russia economically, at the expense of Ukraine. Ukraine's future is put on hold indefinitely as the world settles for "none of the above" violating their obligations under Article 2(5) of the UN Charter. And that really is because the world is weak and selfish, not living up to international responsibilities we learned, but now have forgotten, from the previous world wars.
So maybe it's not true the world doesn't deserve another. You forget the lesson of tyranny and give it a chance... you pay the price.
The media has been saying for months that parts of the east and south (especially Mariupol) were likely to be permanently annexed.
Ukraine has way bigger army than Russian's (up to 1 mln mobilized, vs. 200k) but severely lacks in firepower. And the latter is what could be easily fixed, if only allies allowed it to happen.
Truth is, many Western politicians are secretly scared of the perspective of Ukraine winning over Russia. They don't want Ukraine to actually win (as in to take its territory back), all they want is to just stop Russia from expanding further. That's why the supply of the critical weapons (long-range rocket systems, IFVs, tanks, fighter jets) is abysmally small — just enough to stop Russia from making progress, but not enough for Ukrainians to make any real progress towards ending the war on their own terms.
This is tragic.
I think it may be useful to know the reasoning and arguments adressed in an open public discussion about those anxieties and what is the best course of action, taking all arguments into consideration.
Emmanuel Macron goes as far as openly speaking about that "we should not humiliate Russia". Ukraine winning over Russia would be clearly a humiliation, so, according to Macron, the West shouldn't allow it to happen.
Actions speak better than words, though. Watch who spends the most of their military budget (in percentage of the annual military spending) on supporting Ukraine — it's Eastern Europe. Some of them basically give away 30-40% of their military budget to Ukraine. And what about Western Europe and the USA? They only spend under 3%. They refuse to supply tanks and fighter jets for some vague reasons, and even openly admit that there is an agreement to not supply Western tanks to Ukraine. They only now started to give rocket systems (MLRS) to Ukraine, four months late into the full-scale war, when hundreds of Ukrainian troops and civilians die every day. And they do it in absurdly small numbers — Ukraine requested 300 systems, they gave only 4. This is laughable, as Russia has many thousands of such hardware pieces, raining metal on Ukrainian troops every day.
1. They get scared that Russia (in case of losing the war) gets pissed off and launches nukes all around.
2. They afraid that Russia gets internally destabilized and gets fragmented to smaller states, possibly ending up in a civil war. And that could also lead to nukes flying.
3. "Old Europe" (Germany, France, Italy) might do not want a militarily strong Ukraine, fearing that Eastern Europe (Ukraine + Baltics + Poland) will become a new "superpower" on its own upon defeating Russia. As you know, the victors make the rules.