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Comment by spandrew | Hacker News Reader

This is a mischaracterization of even the words you've quoted.

The team did indeed find that flu vaccines reduced the risk of Alzheimers. But he specifically doesn't say they know why the flu vaccine lowers the risk. Ie. They can't claim causation if they don't understand the underlying reason for the change. That's not how science works.

In fact in the article in question he says the opposite: That the immune system is vastly complex, and all they can say is the immune system reacts to flu vaccines (all flu, not just a specific one) by diminishing an Alzheimers response. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ More study needed plz.

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“The team did indeed find that suntan lotion reduced the risk of rain. But he specifically doesn't say they know why the suntan lotion lowers the risk.” - spandrew, probably

<--- Best comment ever.

> They can't claim causation if they don't understand the underlying reason for the change. That's not how science works.

Sorry but I had to nitpick here. This is exactly how science works. We first observe things that we cannot explain, and we can definitely infer causation without a complete mechanism or even a proper theory for it.

It's a little more nuanced. Causation can be inferred in an experimental design. If the researchers can manipulate the independent variable (the vaccine) using an experimental and a placebo group, and then they can measure a statistically (and clinically) significant difference, then we can assume that this is not just correlation.

I disagree that's a mischaracterization.

> The team did indeed find that flu vaccines reduced the risk of Alzheimers. But he specifically doesn't say they know why the flu vaccine lowers the risk

I don't think that's an accurate statement. They didn't find it reduced risk. They found that there seemed to be a pattern. That's different then saying the flu vaccine reduced risk. Its possible that the vaccine is just a coincidence.

But the pattern looks pretty strong so its interesting news nonetheless.

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