Land, houses will not go up in value if there would be not enough people to buy them. While yes people migrate to the cities or to areas like Randstad and while yes there is housing shortage in such areas but if immigration from rural areas drops a lot there is going to be drop in housing prices.
More people have more diverse needs which creates demand - more people more demand - easier to have higher quality of life if it is easier to find 100 customers to come to your shop than 10 customers.
People are not starting new grocery shops in rural areas because it is good investment - mostly it is that they already live there and have possibility to make additional income on property they own.
People are starting new grocery shops in big cities even if they have to lease property to do so, because they still can profit on top of that.
Infinite growth is also required for high quality of life unfortunately.
Once there is no promise of future earnings by spending now - we start going into zero sum game. Living in a society where every day you have to worry about not loosing piece of pie is really a bad life to live.
Less people means lower pressure to find new ways of getting resources - if there is enough people on earth we might have enough money to get resources from astro-mining if needed.
People can still (on average) have career growth by taking an ever larger piece of the pie. And then they retire/die, leaving more pie for the young ones.
Also, we have the tech to make this pie comfortably big.
A population drop implodes all of it. Of course, presently, it may already be collapsing. When it does, I don't think that the Fed is going to respond by tightening and letting things correct to a healthier slow growth sustainable economy funded through real savings and value production. They will most likely immediately attempt to reinflate the bubbles with negative rates (0.00% FOMC, < 10% reserve requirement, and purchase operations on the open market).
This is symbiosis, not a scheme.
Like them or not, the older folks literally built and/or paid for everything the young end up inheriting. The young are otherwise parasites.
You're talking about how low interest rates are a Ponzi scheme yet it doesn't occur to you that maintaining positive interest forever is an even bigger Ponzi scheme.
It's mostly seen as a bad thing in the lens of ethnic nationalist ideology that low fertility rates will change the demographics of a country (see Great Replacement [0]).
After all, if Musk (and other capitalists) needed, they can get labor from other countries south of America's borders, but there is a push to not make these workers Americans! This isn't an issue only in America either.
>[...] is a white nationalist far-right conspiracy theory [...]
Native Americans would disagree.
It's a (bullshit paranoid) predictive theory about the modern day that has nothing to do with the historical genocide of Native Americans by white people.
It's been around for a lot longer than 2010. It has been a popular subject matter in Europe for decades [1]. I guess someone just decided to finally put a more official, catchy title to it and publish books. Does this particular author have a racist tone? Perhaps they do. But ask an average European citizen back in late 80s, 90s and they'd tell you what's up without skipping a beat. It's something you can see from a mile away. Pleading ignorance won't help.
[1] Your media won't tell you this, so don't be surprised. Talk to a handful of locals to get a sample for how people really feel about things. It's a much better barometer than getting your news from something like Voice of America.
It's the same argument wielded to discriminate against immigrants. It was used against the Irish, Italians, and Polish in NY City to name a few. Each group was "ruining America". It takes 3 generations to assimilate, but everyone anti-immigration wants them to "speak American" in one generation.
The "Great Replacement" specifically talks about this as being a deliberate plan by "wealthy elites", and again, is racist paranoid bullshit.
If you're going to talk about a specific thing, you can't just generalise it to every concern around immigration.
And while there are genuine concerns around immigration, like housing capacity, how to help migrants settle in, etc., most "people on the street" are just complaining about lazy immigrants who are simultaneously "stealing our jobs" and going on benefit.
to outsource raising children to places that can do it for less & ensure competition for low-paid jobs stays high...
what difference does it make
It’s not bullshit. The UN itself is where the term originated and it’s clear that whites are being replaced. The questions are whether that’s an undesirable thing and what the best course of mitigation is.
Typically, once people admit that, they start trying to justify why whites should be replaced. However, any argument justifying white replacement can be used equally effectively for any other group (e.g. Israelis, Muslims, Chinese, blacks, etc). IMHO best not to attempt to replace anyone so that we don’t devolve into Hitlers.
Here's a 2010 review suggesting population decline is no biggie: https://academic.oup.com/oxrep/article-abstract/26/4/583/453...
Here's a recent paper on the topic: https://www.bde.es/f/webbde/INF/MenuHorizontal/SobreElBanco/...
Update: here's a paper by Charles Jones. This might be better because (1) Charles Jones is rather famous growth economist and (2) it focuses specifically on population decline rather than population ageing.
Because you'll live way past your productive years and the things you will consume (services, goods, medical, etc.) still need to be produced/done by someone.
The automation aspect in economy has been way overestimated - truck drivers were supposed to be automated 5 years ago, meanwhile we are facing real world issues because of truck driver shortages.
Even jobs that were considered trivial to automate like cashers are still performed by humans - after decades of self checkout tech.
Unless your retirement plan is a shotgun barrell - you need the next generation to both live their lives comfortably and provide for you.
This is exponantial growth.
No, it probably just means population declines need be very slow and graceful (e.g. very close to steady-state) in order to not create big labor shortages simultaneous with large retiree populations.
That's no longer true in my part of the world. In the supermarkets I frequent, I'm pretty sure that well over 2/3 of revenue is self-scanned.
Change often takes multiple decades. That doesn't mean it's not happening.
Or at least all the people buying 20 items or less will, or whatever the figures may be. In previous example, take the 20 checkout lanes, leave 10 staffed by a few employees, and install 20 self check out terminals staffed by a few employees. Direct everyone with full carts to the employees, and people with few items to the self checkout.
Not really. It feels like every few months we get another piece decrying the lack of truck drivers, only for it to gloss over issues of pay. There is no shortage of truck drivers; there's a shortage of places that don't try to exploit them.
I wonder how much of that shortage is due to over-hyped predictions about future automation? The predictions don't pan out but succeed at discouraging people from joining the profession.
> Even jobs that were considered trivial to automate like cashers are still performed by humans - after decades of self checkout tech.
Self-checkout is not actually automation. It's just outsourcing the job of cashier to a customer who then works for free.
The problem for many first world countries today is that their populations are shaped like upside down pyramids- many old people and people nearing retirement age and much fewer young and working age people. Why is this a problem? The working age population represents the tax and production base that supports the non-working and non-tax contributing older population, the non-working young people represent the replacement for the working age people that will eventually retire.
I guess part of the problem is maybe some of this is too much like socialism and/or being able to give non-working persons actual dollars.
One of the major issues faced by the Nordic countries is that healthcare workers are quitting ing large numbers and starting to take direct action like strikes in order to improve working conditions.
In Denmark and Finland there was direct government intervention when nurses went on strike (or threatened in Finland's case); a highly unconventional move considering the fact that both countries grant workers the right to use strikes as a tool in collective bargaining. Both the Danish and the Finnish governments are lead by Social Democrats, the political movement traditionally directly connected with the labour unions.
That taken into account, the health care sector doesn't just need some intervention. It requires large-scale restructuring in order to make it a more attractive sector to work in.
7x population growth, shift from 80% rural to 90% urban. Where "rural" is low economic engagement and "urban" is a job-holder. shift from single-earning families to dual-earner, where again a stay-at-home mom does not increase the size of the economy while a working one does (and please, I know this is unfair and the tremendous value a full time Mom provides).
Multiple these three shifts and you get a pretty big increase in the economy, with zero increase in productivity.
Look at Japan. Japan's population has been on the decline for about 1.5 generations. They still get as much food, shelter, and entertainment as any other developed economy. They have hobbies, travel, discretionary income... The worries there aren't about capitalism failing.
Demographic collapse just has a lot of nasty social consequences in general. An inverted pyramid spells pain for future generations.
I don't think an inverted pyramid is as bad as it sounds. It's a check against ageism and falling wages (there's no longer a horde of hungry young people who want the jobs) and, given how little of the work people do is actually necessary--white-collar jobs are 85% sending passive-aggressive emails--I think society can afford it. It might be the only thing that provides enough value of labor to keep conditions relatively humane.
Taxpayer funded (which is what “public” generally means) pensions are basically the only defined benefit pensions left in the US. I do not know of a single city, county, state, or federal government that has gotten rid of them, especially not for cops.
“public employee pensions” are a different thing.
(But neither is gone, in general or in the US, though more and more government employee positions in the US are relying more on defined contribution retirement plans and less on defined benefit pensions.)
But if you're hoping for something closer to the modern, Western ideal - education until age ~25, work until age ~60, retirement until age ~90 - then the inverted pyramid is going to need at least one of:
(1) Armies of imported service workers - to staff all the nursing homes, retirement homes, cruise ships, restaurants, etc. that the huge "top" of that pyramid need / want.
(2) Armies of robots so advanced that they can fill the great majority of those jobs. WithOUT requiring an extra army of humans to build, pay for, maintain, run, etc. those service worker robots.
(3) Huge changes in medical technology and social expectations, so that most of those service workers are never needed.
They could easily assume 0% expected return on investment, but that would make it so the cash expenses today would explode, to the same level that they would if they simply paid employees the cash. Which is why politicians like to run on campaigns promising lower taxes, and in order to achieve that, they assume future economic growth so that instead of paying someone $10 today, the government can pay $1, and rely on economic growth to provide the other $9 (assuming purchasing power of the currency remains the same, which it will not).
The vintage-futurism economic dream of 10 hour workweeks will be tough to achieve if we need many in the working age population taking care of the elderly.
They mayor Unterguggenberger implemented a demurrage currency during the great depression in Wörgl and it solved the unemployment and budget deficit problem without inflation.
That's 50 years; a decent chunk of time.
By the way; its important to note that the replacement fertility rate changes over time. Today, in the US, infant mortality rates are half that in 1970 and prior, in basically every category. Ideally, obviously, the replacement rate will approach 2.0.
Is there a version of economic thought that doesn't necessitate constant population growth? How about the one we're living? You can make the argument that the world is falling apart, or the economy, or we're at the end of a totally normal 80-100 year economic cycle, or maybe everything is fine, that's all supposition. What's real is; we're still going.
The short answer to your question is: historically: No. Empires fall when population growth stalls. When empires fall, a LOT of people die, and a lot more suffer. The dream of "isolated sustainable communes" doesn't work at scale. If your argument is some variation of: the human population shouldn't be at scale; then feel free to remove yourself from the equation as a start down that path, but realistically, we're all here, we have the system we have.
However, I tend to believe that the better argument is: we found that version of economic thought which can work in the face of stagnating population growth. Its the one we have; it does work, not perfectly, in fact quite poorly, but we'll never know how bad the alternate realities are. In effect, MMT.
Its extremely and critically important to recognize that technology has jumped more in the last thirty years than in the thousands of years prior. Our relationship to it, as individuals and as a society, is still evolving, and that evolution is happening in the face of declining western populations. Technology amplifies individual productivity; so why are we all still working 40 hour weeks? Momentum primarily, but more specifically: our population only recently started plateauing. We needed technology to keep up; its the only way. But as population plateaus, technology will naturally take over more. Its not just "fewer people can do more"; it goes from "fewer people can do more for more people" to "fewer people can do more for fewer people", which naturally means they have to do less.
MMT plays into that because: technology is expensive. If we're entering a world where our options are: build a $50B water barrier around Miami or let the city drown, we can't afford to worry about the status of our gold reserves, or whether the blockchain is up today. We wouldn't have the money; we'd chose not to build it; billions of dollars in infrastructure, land, and people would be destroyed; and the economy would be worse off, not better, than if we had just said "blank check do it" and then dealt with the ramifications of that decision tomorrow.
That doesn't mean there won't be ramifications. There always are in complex systems. But people get so focused on the reality we're living, to say "if only we'd have stuck to the way we used to do it", without recognizing that its just as possible you, and all your friends, and all your friends' friends, would not be alive if we had stuck to that old system.
Here's the biggest kink though; generally, well-implemented MMT (which much like well-implemented communism, hasn't been done, but has been written about to great lengths) requires close coordination between monetary and legislative policy; something our government is engineered to not do. We're seeing the impacts of this miscoordination now; there's a strong argument that the biggest source of inflation today has less to with money printing or interest rates, and more to do with core productivity in the sectors experiencing that inflation (energy: oil processing, housing: home building, public transit construction, etc). Core productivity (more factories, more construction, automation, etc) can oftentimes be solved with cheap, targeted money; but the Fed is currently engaged in a show of raising interest rates. Its the one lever they have; every problem is a screw, they have their directive: a hammer. I don't feel this is doom and gloom, today; a lot of the issues we're experiencing are, truly, just the delayed echoes of COVID which will die out, raising interest rates will legitimately help some sources of inflation, and the legislature has demonstrated interest in providing cheap money for productivity improvements (build back better). But, its still how the Fed operates; they have their doctrine and their lever, and its easy to imagine a future where more coordination is necessary to push through massive spending in response to major issues like the climate crisis, declining water supplies, etc, without either succumbing to the crisis, or creating a new economic crisis.