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I think secession is more likely, but we aren't there yet.

Secession is unconstitutional. Splitting up an existing state is consitutional.

This is always such a non-sense argument. The civil war showed that you can't secede and lose the battle. Do you think the Federal government would start a bombing campaign against the People's Republic of California? No. Would there be some really uncomfortable trade negotiations? Yes.

Texas v. White established that states cannot unilaterally leave.

Would the federal government carpet bomb a state that tried? No. But there are other means to exert force and stop secession. Besides, the U.S. Government has no reason to ever willingly let California (or Texas, or really any state) leave the union, so why would they ever sit down at the negotiating table?

Then they would be at a stalemate/armistice much like the Koreas. How would the Feds trade with PRC? They'd have to either allow it full market access as a wayward child, which would mean PRC would get all the benefits of trade without having to pay Federal tax, or they would have to freeze out PRC, which would damage the Federal economy. Given California's economic pull around the world, I could see a great number of countries in the West aligning with them for "freedom reasons".

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