He could do well in a little indie movie that pushes his range but his life and personality prevents that way more than his range as an actor.
Tangent about this:
There was a very interesting Roger Ebert review of Eyes Wide Shut that addressed some of the criticism of Tom Cruise's acting in that film. Cruise had been described as "wooden" and Ebert came to his defense. Kubrick - who is on record as being a perfectionist who believes that actors are best when they're meat puppets for the director - made Cruise go through 97 takes of walking through a door. Either that's just sadism on part of the director's ego (and there may be something to that, Kubrick is notorious for playing psychological games with actors to get the performance he wants - or Kubrick working to get exactly what he wants on the screen.