> So to that point, your doom & gloom absolutist scenario could not play out if the product of the model was sufficiently different.
It would absolutely play out, because it is impossible to guarantee that such a model will always produce something "sufficiently different". These models are black boxes with billions of parameters. That's how they work. It's just as unrealistic as those politicians pushing through "lawful access to encrypted data" that'd effectively make strong end-to-end encryption illegal. There's no middle ground here. We either accept that such a model might sometimes output a snippet from its training data and benefit from the 99% of times it doesn't, or we can be copyright maximalists and ensure no one benefits. (Except ironically huge corporations like Microsoft, either because they can license the data for training, or because they have sufficiently well funded legal departments.)
> Now imagine you're a not-Google sized company, are you going to take the chance that Copilot will spit out something that they consider copyrighted?
>
> I think in terms of legal/business risk, it's just too high as it stands now.
This is a fair point, but you can say this about any other interesting model. Is that piece of text generated by GPT-NeoX-20B (which is a fully free and open model trained by essentially hobbyists) illegal to use because it might infringe on someone else's copyright? You don't know. And it was also trained on code from Github. Where are the posts calling for people to sue their authors because they're not respecting the GPL?
Here, I've just tried it and screenshoted it for you, spitting out GPL'd code: https://i.imgur.com/2T4uSJR.png
Again, this is not the Copilot. This is the free GPT-NeoX-20B model that anyone can download. The model's not under GPL, and yet it clearly "contains" GPL'd code. Anything which affects Copilot's legal status will also affect GPT-NeoX-20B, but even more severely since GPT-NeoX was also trained on a ton of "all rights reserved" data. So when you raise your pitchfork at Copilot you should also ask yourself the question - are you fine with also killing projects such as GPT-NeoX, or maybe a more lax copyright law is more beneficial to the society as a whole when it comes to machine learning?