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However, your analysis is simplistic and assumes:
1. The house uses no natural gas (most do)
2. The cost of electricity never goes up (it will in the short term at least)
3. CO2 emissions from wasted energy have no cost (they do)
4. Building energy efficient buildings is way more expensive than the alternatives for new construction (it isn’t)
The top comment in this thread states that 1.7% of the upfront cost of the apartment, $17,000, is for energy efficiency improvements.
In fact, the codes that mandate energy efficiency improvements take a detailed cost analysis into account, and only mandate cost-saving energy efficiency improvements.