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markovbot

this comment would probably be a lot strong if Tesla didn't have such an abysmal safety record.

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Sorry what? They are literally the safest cars on the road in terms of BOTH

A) accidents per driven mile and B) probability of injury in an accident

Is this compared to other autonomous cars with lidar, like Waymo or Cruise?

looks like waymo uses chrysler pacifica, which got a 4/5 for rollover, so worse in crashes than tesla (perfect score).

https://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle/2019/CHRYSLER/PACIFICA/VAN/FWD...

in terms of crashes per mile, nhtsa reported waymo having the most total crashes last year of any automated driving system.

https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov/files/2022-06/ADS-SGO-...

waymo had 62 crashes in 2.3 million miles driven which is 1 crash per 37K miles, compared to autopilot 1 crash per 4.31M miles or 1 crash per 1.9M miles with a human driving (plus emergency safety features included free in every vehicle).

so the average autopilot vehicle instance travels ~2 full waymo fleet years of driving before crashing once, rather than crashing 124 times.

I think you are conflating multiple reports. The second paper you linked compares the crashes between Waymo and Tesla (62 vs 1), but does not show the number of miles driven for each system. Also, those numbers are for Automated Driving Systems (ADS) which are defined as "vehicles equipped with SAE Levels 3 through 5". On the other hand the 4.31 million miles you cited is from Tesla's "Autopilot" program [1], which is only a level 2 system [2]. The second paper you linked also confirms this as it says "there are currently no ADS vehicles for sale to the general public". So the crashes reported in that paper seem to be from company tests and robotaxi programs, not from consumer drivers.

[1]: https://auto.hindustantimes.com/auto/cars/tesla-cars-registe...

[2]: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Autopilot

are there actual numbers for this?

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