https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession
Inflation means the value of your savings is degrading over time.
These are both bad. For the most part inflation and unemployment are opposed to each other, see
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillips_curve
that Phillips curve is not an absolute relation, but its a guideline for the choices the government have. Lowering interest rates or running a budget defict to promote employment but cause inflation and raising interest rates and running a budget surplus are bad for employment for good for inflation.
The Fed in US is raising interest rates to fight inflation but some fear it will call a recession.
It is not an absolute thing and it shifts over time. We have had low interest rates and high budget deficits for a long time and had low inflation until recently. In the 1970s the US had 'stagflation' where unemployment and inflation were both high. Some lesser developed countries have bad inflation and unemployment chronically. See
Recession for me period, when gdp grow is less than measurement error.
Usually macro-statistics measurement error considered ~3-5% (more probability of 3%, less of 5%), so if measured gdp grow 2.9% it could be really 0% or even minus 0.1%, this is definitely recession.
Sure if gdp grow measured as negative, like -20% in some countries in 2020, that is, undoubtedly.
Inflation is in reality, postponed alignment of offer and proposal.
Usually happen AFTER market changes, because, on really free market, impossible to increase prices immediately, as customers will avoid buy with new prices.
Second reason, that most commodities sell with long term agreements, which prohibited immediately price changes, (accepted for example once per year change price, but before must give some serious reasons), and typically exists long chain of such agreements (tens of), so real price grow always postponed.
Only in events of really big catastrophes, like war or pandemic, chain of supply become broken, and new prices appear immediately.
If you looking for reliable indirect signs, good are consumption of gas (or natural fuels) and electricity, usually they measured very accurate and for known technology level, exists constants for exact calculation.
But left unchecked the 8% rate will lead to recession.
Plus the 8% measurement is likely skewed optimistically downward in addition to having an ever-widening error band of its own.
Double-digit inflation may not be recognized across-the-board right now but it is already here in some places.
Which gives a worse recession than you get after mere single-digit devastation.
No, absolutely.
Japan for decades constantly cool hot economy by money emission, sure have extremely large inflation on some products, and no recession.
Even considering, ALL officials know Japan case, nobody cared, about make emission.
Because of large grow of export (counted in money), at end of 2017 year, Ukrainian currency hryvnya grown against usd, and Ukrainian exporters suffered huge losses, because their clients don't want overpay, but they have economy tied to usd-hrn conversion rate (they pay compensations to workers in hrn).
Then suffered losses all business working at internal market, because local money becomes very expensive, so their circulating money shrinked.
So country have losses because have not made emission.
Next year world prices dropped again, and country catch small recession.
Recession has a definition, and it is not synonymous with a certain inflation rate. A lot of financially/economically aware people know this definition.
However, in informal usage, and probably for many laypeople, recession has come to mean "The economy is not in good shape". In this informal regard, a high inflation rate could be argued as a not a good sign for the economy.
I prefer for words to have clear definitions, so that all parties involved understand what's being talked about. But sometimes when the definitions aren't understood by the parties, it creates ambiguity and informal understandings get created.
Real GDP (which accounts for inflation) was up in 4Q 2021, but down 1Q 2022. Based on a somewhat arbitrarily-selected article I briefly skimmed the beginning of, Real GDP is expected to be up in 2Q.
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-d...
Of course, it always comes down to the details, which I haven’t really looked into.