I was laughed at, repeatedly, on Twitter, by crypto types when I often said I was confident Bitcoin price would fall below $20k 6 months ago.
It's not something you can really short though?
Perhaps you will be laughed at again if the price goes back toward $100_000.
The point is, you can be right some of the time, but it's a purely speculative market, and no-one really knows where it's going. Is bitcoin 'worth' nothing? Yes. Is it worth whatever people are prepared to pay for it, which could be millions? Also Yes.
It's the easiest financial instrument in the world to short? Far easier than going short on stocks.
You can go long and short on 6 month futures for a tiny fee.
I’m sure crypto exchanges offer ways to short BTC as well, but the exchange itself probably handles settlement, so there is counterparty risk involved (among other risks inherent in unregulated exchanges).
There is no cash upfront. It’s perfect.
I also wouldn't take your bet as I think bitcoin likely will go above 30k in the next 4 years. What is also likely is that the price will remain volatile - unless there's a major game changer I think this volatility will keep putting a lot of people off (with an impact on price).
I have no idea what the price will be in 4 years time. My guess says under 50k. But I wouldn't be surprised if it hit 200k.
There’s no reliable way to short it.
(Unless the exchanges let you withdraw the fiat for your positions while they’re open?)
Exchanges make huge amounts of money in bear and bull markets.
Yes. If it's provenance is unverifiable (it is), and there's no evidence that the money being pumped into it exists (there isn't), then anything even adjacent to it is implicitly exposed to counter-party risk and therefore untrustworthy.
This is without even considering the fact that there's substantial evidence to suggest that most of the money being pumped in does not exist (cough tether cough).
Exchanges make money while the plates are spinning, and they make significantly less in bear markets, none of which guarantees your exit.
If a bank fails it's dissolved and guaranteed deposits get first preference when administrators sift through the wreckage. If a crypto exchange even looks like it might fai.. oops boating accident.
What's hilarious to me is that Saylor still gets asked on live television if he's worried about a margin call. He laughs it off and says something like "oh no, we're not close to that and very liquid" which really means "lol no I'll just say oopsie doopsie some intern lost the key". The people that lent to him are beyond belief stupid.
How are you all still drinking the koolaid?
It regularly moves wildly faster than any other commonly traded asset. There is no possible way that any margin requirement could cover it, because no-one is going to stake 90% down for 10% margin, which is what you'd need to guarantee against a crash - especially if you're putting up USD for collateral.