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Comment by ryanSrich | Hacker News Reader

> None of it has ever happened before during a recession

We are not currently in a recession.

If we get into a recession in the next quarter or two, there's no harm done to crypto. The market is headed into bear territory regardless of the macro economic climate.

I swear no one remembers 2017. Thousands of projects that raised billions of dollars died. No one cares. The market rebuilds itself every 3-5 years. This is absolutely no different.

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Man, I have to respect your true believer attitude about the everlasting cyclical system that has existed within a single lifetime.

I believe it until the pattern stops. No other reason to believe people won't continue to be addicted to gambling.

You are correct that people will continue to engage in stupid gambling. The problem is they're not going to have gobs of cheap money to throw into it and get leveraged 100x on which drives a lot of the speculative value.

Cheap money will come back again also, at least within 3-5 years

What’s the argument for this? Do you think rates would drop again within 3-5 years?

Yes, because after correcting for irrational exuberance and the economy being in a holding pattern for 2 years all the next politician has to say is that they alone can fix the economy by lowering rates. They will then install a dummy head of the Fed that will play along.

Rolling over our current national debt at the current rates will make the debt servicing costs too high relative to tax income. So either rates cannot stay high indefinitely, or inflation will continue until debt is smaller compared to tax income. In both cases money becomes cheap. The average maturity on debt is 5 years which is where I got that time scale, but this is also in line with previous cycle lengths-- you can't find many times where the fed has waited longer to cut rates. Debt has also never been this high as a percent of GDP, so more pressure from that shouldead to faster policy changes.

Great! That means people will invest in cryptocurrency projects with good fundamentals and that deliver value, instead of the pure speculation that we've suffered until now.

It has literally happened once before, that does not mean it is going to revive again. What if we're at crypto saturation and the demand won't cover another crash?

2013, 2017/18 and now 2022. That's three times total, two times before.

I’m going to go out on a limb and say a lot has changed in cryptocurrency since 2013

2013 isn’t even close to the first time crypto recovered from dead.

I have no idea if it's true, but it seems like people are writing about contagion within crypto, as if it is more substantial than last time, and worrying a little bit about it affecting the rest of the economy.

This game of lending crypto assets for ridiculous interest rates wasn't nearly as popular last time, was it?

> This game of lending crypto assets for ridiculous interest rates wasn't nearly as popular last time, was it?

- ICOs - DAOs - NFTs - Yield - Earn - Farming

etc. All of these can be ephemeral concepts within a single crypto bull cycle. Regardless of whether or not you think crypto is valuable, there's no denying people love money. So long as crypto remains unregulated there will always be bull markets imo.

We may currently be in a recession. The second quarter GDP numbers aren't out.

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