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Comment by paulpauper | Hacker News Reader

The fed is aggressively raising rates as the economy goes into recession. The last time something similar to this happened was in 1980. A very bad unusual situation, but on the other hand, the worst may be over.

I think Google, Microsoft, Facebook, Amazon, and other large cap tech stocks are good buys at these levels and are more immune to macro factors (compared to other sectors ) and can hedge inflation by raising prices.

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I have mixed feelings on tech stocks. I feel like the general competence has gone down, and that makes them vulnerable.

Google is a shitshow right now. I don't think they can do B2B. Chrome Extensions. GSuite Free. Google Workspace App security audits. I can list of dozens of other disruptions like that. No one trusts them. At the same time, cost structure is astronomical; employee count has grown exponentially, to match revenues, with little to show for it.

Amazon is a cesspool of knock-offs, scams, and rip-offs.

Facebook's reputation is in the toilet right now and internal incentives are completely misaligned.

Microsoft is, oddly enough, doing the best of the bunch. They recovered from their evil hay day in the nineties, their incompetent '00s, and seem to be doing okay.

I think the move to degooglify will spiral. I think an Aliexpress might take down Amazon within the next decade or two. And Facebook might be Myspaced.

Google and Facebook make insane profits. Advertisers are paying huge $ per click or for YouTube views. Maybe Google management is suboptimal, but the company generates cash like no other.

Generating cash doesn’t immediately ensure longevity.

bigger profit margins offer more cushion in bad econ environments compared to other businesses

I agree and own Google stock, but I would be a little cautious:

"After the collapse of the stock market during the recession of 2008, ad spending saw a reduction of over 27% across all channels." [1]

Now that is across all channels so firms might prioritize Web over TV/Print, and that is from 2008 when much more spend was focused on TV, but food for thought.

[1] - https://www.wearemiq.com/blog/advertising-during-a-recession...

> Amazon is a cesspool of knock-offs, scams, and rip-offs.

I think it's worth pointing out that Amazon is more than it's online retail site - 60% of it's revenue in 2020 came from something other than third party retail. AWS is probably going to take over as their biggest source of revenue soon.

If amazon’s main issue is the scams and knockoffs, how is aliexpress the cure?

It equalizes them. And products on AliExpress are cheaper. But that, of course, depends on the US relationship with China which doesn't seem to be getting friendlier.

I can buy stuff much cheaper on Aliexpress. My experience there is no worse than 2022 Amazon, except for lower prices and slower shipping.

Amazon, even as late as 2019, seemed ahead of Aliexpress on service and quality. Something happened with COVID which seems to have permanently broken Amazon. I understand a blip, but after 2 years, Amazon hasn't recovered.

My basic problem is that if I order medicines, I want to know they're not placebo pills. If I order vanilla extract, I want to make sure it's not produced in a chemical factory with random toxins. If I buy something brand-name, I want to make sure it has that level of quality. If I buy an SD card, I want to know it's not a defective product from a manufacturing run with a forged Sandisk label. I can't do that on Amazon anymore.

That leaves fast shipping as the prime selling point, but Amazon seems to miss delivery deadlines a lot since COVID, not to mention broad ranges of products which don't do fast shipping. Fast shipping I can count on is worth a lot. Fast shipping most of the time has negative value. Most of the time I care about fast shipping, it's because I have some deadline.

Apple is getting into health care and thats where I see the growth and value generation over the next decade. I love apple right now, they are worth their premium and Im decking out my parents and grandparents in watches, phones, and computers so that They can stay connected, clear, and access all these new health focused features in their older age. Alot of the work of caretakers is being automated by apple’s platform and people will be able to stay independent longer because of it.

I think this is a very HN view of things. To the average person, all of these companies are are a nearly inescapable part of daily life.

> The fed is aggressively raising rates as the economy goes into recession

The fed raising rates is what is causing fears of a recession in the first place. Cooling off the economy is the entire point, that's how you control inflation.

The fed is trying NOT to cause an actual recession, but still cool the economy enough to reduce inflation.

The rate was like 10% when they started raising in the 80s. The situation now is different, and the 'crisis' at hand is the current economy's addiction to rates of zero for so long. Entirely self-inflicted by the FED.

The Fed is very reluctantly raising rates, not aggressively. Fed interest rate is now 1.5%-1.75% with 8.6% inflation.

You don't have labor and supply-side shortages during a recession. We're pretty far from a recession.

The fed may overly cool things off and cause a recession, but it's not a double-negative situation of recession PLUS raising rates.

Google and FB rely on ads. Less consumer demand, less spending on ads.

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