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Comment by thethimble | Hacker News Reader

Well it’s not clear that anyone could have predicted the timing of this downturn. Just a few months ago people were painting a very rosy picture for the future. In that context, metering investment can have a huge opportunity cost as well.

I’m not advocating for CB - just suggesting that it’s harder to predict the future than you are implying.

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We knew that rates going up was inevitable, and that crypto is essentially a sponge for excess liquidity. We knew that inflation was inevitable (to an extent) given the Fed's actions over the last two years. Upon observation of the current macroeconomic environment, it appears that either markets did not properly price in rate hikes, or there is something far worse happening that will ultimately trigger a valuations reset.

That's still a very employer-centric view. If the company reasonably expects a downturn at some point, it should be preparing with right-sized sustainable hiring. It's not "metering investment" but rather "building a sustainable business". Rushing to hire as many people as possible, then firing during a downturn, creates the impression that employees are cannon fodder.

Exact timing? No. General direction? There are people who made that call in November, plenty more joined January-February. Note the question is where does this end and those same people are the first to admit nobody knows, because the fed doesn’t know - and the answer is, when the fed pivots.

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