The number of "unicorns" that will be around in a decade is likely in the low double digits at best.
That’s over 12 billion dollars by definition.
I’m concerned that the decadence of the west has now led to a series of get rich schemes that create bubble after bubble, providing successive paper booms that are bailed out by governments. The problem is that the consequences of each bail out accumulates, so this broader cycle seems itself unsustainable.
Western economies need to get back to real wealth creation. A good test of that is - can your economy solve real physical problems? Can it feed itself? Can it produce what you need in a pandemic? Are there goods and services that are universally in demand over the long term, which you produce better than anyone else?
It’s like growth of GDP has become this silly KPI that our governments obsess over whilst ignoring what’s making that happen. You can grow GDP by destroying the environment or running a Ponzi scheme, but what you really care about is the underlying strength of the economy.
The U.K. was heavily exposed by covid, in terms of its manufacturing capability and its managed response. We looked weak and disorganised. Now we need to learn from that and focus on growing a diverse and solid economy that is powerful and flexible enough to respond properly to challenges like the energy price hikes.
But I suspect the next bubble will grow just like crypto and our government will continue to pretend everything is ok.
DBX and ABNB are doing well (they're down relative to the highs of the last year or two but so is everything in tech). GTLB also looks like a pretty strong company given their solid market positioning and quality enterprise SaaS metrics. I'd classify those 3 as doing well overall.