Can these companies support legions of absurdly highly paid people? GOOG is down 25% this year, what will happen when it drops 50%?
This of course means that if you were granted just before a downturn, the "reason to stay" isn't as powerful as it was before.
And I think the big names will start slowing down hiring and offering less, probably salaries stay the same but the grants start to decline.
RSU pay - especially at higher levels - makes up >50% of total compensation.
If stock prices go up or down - you'll certainly make more or less money. But the effect on the company is minimal.
Revenue is what matters to be able to afford to pay the base salary and bonus.
I don't know about Google in particular but I think RSUs are generally issued in terms of an amount of stock, not a dollar amount. As the share price goes down then Google becomes less competitive against companies with a more stable stock price who also issue RSUs.
It's bad for existing RSU holders though
Somebody making nearly 7 figures as a middle manager is only doing so because they are including stock appreciation in their compensation. That isn't the norm steady state, even for L7s.
If they actually worked out their cloud offering then it would be even brighter.
Crypto is not comparable to companies like Google. If you’re looking for tech companies that might suffer, you’re looking for one trick ponies that can’t innovate - maybe look at Facebook.
Google has a strong focus on engineering and academic smarts. That has big downsides that might prevent them from making truly great user-centred products, but it’s also a robust philosophy that will ensure that they endure. I expect Google to be around in 2100. Facebook no. Coinbase absolutely not.