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Comment by anshublog | Hacker News Reader

This is sad. This was avoidable. There’s no recession as far as the eye can see. There’s a crypto recession.

Let’s go back to building real tech.

>There’s no recession as far as the eye can see.

Back your pardon? The Fed is expected to raise the interest rate by 0.75% in September, IIRC. If that's not a recession on the horizon, then what is?

They might actually do so this week if the news is to be believed

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/13/markets-are-now-bracing-for-...

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/13/fed-reportedly-may-hike-rate...

edit to add second non-paywalled link

I was about to say that waiting till September might be not ideal when it comes to battling inflation.

Raising rates has a lagging effect. That results in the economy won’t be felt until next year.

One of the benefits of crypto was supposed to be that it was uncorrelated to the market, etc.

“Money” shouldn’t change in value so quickly.

> One of the benefits of crypto was supposed to be that it was uncorrelated to the market, etc.

Crypto may or may not have its own issues, but all assets tend to suffer 'correlation breakdown' during market volatility.

We would still be below 2%. Interest Rate in the United States averaged 5.44 percent from 1971 until 2022.

Still waiting for the banks to raise my saving's interest rate to 70's level. ½ percent doesn't cut it.

Buy I Bonds. 9.62% https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds...

Limited to 10k/year

$15k; you can buy $5k with your tax return. $30k if you've a spouse.

Ha ha, what tax return? Thanks, though. Setting up an account today.

If you want, you can overpay taxes by $5k to get a refund to put into I Bonds.

Unfortunately limited to $10k per year, but at that rate everyone should be buying up to the limit.

Is there a "recession" in the rest of the tech industry? I took that to be the point of the person you are replying to.

Yes? Many stocks are down >50% and companies are announcing hiring freezes

How is that a recession?

Yeah, It is not exclusive to crypto is it? We've already seen that even Tesla and Netflix announced layoffs. So, there's that.

They raised interest rates several times over the last year. Of course from any point in time a recession is “on the horizon,” but this is not the cut and dry predictor you’re making it out to be.

Two straight quarters of declining GDP. Merely raising interest rates to a sane figure (still below 3%!) isn't recession-causing in any sane economy.

> Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 1.5 percent in the first quarter of 2022

Any bets it's going to be positive in Q2 with the ballooning oil prices?

>There’s no recession as far as the eye can see.

You cannot print money nigh on end. If you did not see this downturn coming in the markets, I have a bridge to sell you.

> There’s no recession as far as the eye can see. There’s a crypto recession.

Don't be the guy who replied to my comment, waiting for the results to tell you that it is a recession. [0] If you are preparing now, you're almost too late.

Only the paranoid survive.

> Let’s go back to building real tech.

Like the spyware laden software made by the likes of Meta, Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon that they are building? No worse than crypto I'm afraid.

The free-software foundation are still waiting for you and others for 37 years to stop building non-free software riddled with surveillance and tracking. But neither that nor crypto is going to stop is it?

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31441710

Have you seen stock market? They are crashing also, this is recession.

> This was avoidable. There’s no recession as far as the eye can see.

Can you elaborate on how the situation we're in was avoidable? Also curious why you think there's no signs of a recession.

The avoidable part is pretty obvious: don't invest in, work for, trade in crypto.

The recession part is of course debatable.

upper middle-class tech workers live in their own bubble.

The yield curve says otherwise.

You won't feel it until Q4 2022 or Q1 2023.

Better believe in recession, you're in one.

Where do you live?

Reply on news.ycombinator.com