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Comment by irusensei | Hacker News Reader

I'm pretty sure I've read somewhere about a significant rise in tourism after they've announced bitcoin as legal tender and there are also the possibilities to attract revenue from miners using geothermal energy - which understand to be clean. So I guess they this Bitcoin thing could still be positive.

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If tourism has gone up, does it not seem more likely correlated with the end of the pandemic?

Investing in clean power sources and then using that power for mining seems a poor economic idea in a country with no fossil fuel reserves and which still relies on imports for its existing power needs.

> If tourism has gone up, does it not seem more likely correlated with the end of the pandemic?

I find unlikely that people with cabin fever are itching to visit a country with such a violent reputation as El Salvador. We might find more clues if we compare revenue from before the pandemic and bitcoin adoption.

> Investing in clean power sources and then using that power for mining seems a poor economic idea in a country with no fossil fuel reserves and which still relies on imports for its existing power needs.

I think its quite the opposite. They have lots of untapped power from volcano but no actual demand for that energy that justifies investment. Its just there. With bitcoin mining comes incentives from deploying infrastructure and strengthening their grid. Its not coal or gas so everyone should be happy with the results right?

But they do have demand - their country is paying for imported fossil fuel. That is an energy demand and a cost they could develop away from.

> With bitcoin mining comes incentives from deploying infrastructure and strengthening their grid

Not really, just stick miners next to the generators, job done.

Correlation != causation

From: https://cointelegraph.com/news/tourism-in-el-salvador-up-30-...

> Valdez noted that El Salvador’s Bitcoin adoption has also impacted the flow of tourist visits, increasing the number of tourists coming from the United States. Prior to the Bitcoin law enactment, the majority of visitors was coming from neighboring countries in the Central American isthmus. Now, as many as 60% of tourists come from the United States...

Worth pointing out that El Salvador's tourism was double its "post Bitcoin" level in 2019, and the majority of 2020 visitors came from neighbouring countries in Central America because international flights were banned for half the year. Almost like Bitcoin isn't a major driver in recent tourism trends

I don't doubt that some tourism is a result of Bitcoin (and that shouting about Bitcoin could definitely be net positive in the short run for a smaller country competing for tax-exile dollars), but we have much better data on the 1/500 of the government budget lost on a speculative investment and El Salvador's increased borrowing cost, and whilst those aren't El Salvador's only problems they're quite big numbers to make up from people seeking the novelty of paying for their cheap beers and beach huts with apps linked to their Bitcoin wallet.

Did they interview the tourists and ask if tourists came because of the Bitcoin adoption?

Quoting an article where someone's confounding causation and correlation does not absolve you from the sin of committing the same.

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