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Comment by devoutsalsa | Hacker News Reader

I wonder how realistic that is. That’s a huge shift to make in only 13 years. I guess we’ll see!

It isn't. In about 5-10 years we will see a big push to delay that deadline, or even quietly shelve it. The industrial sector in particular is nowhere near switching, and they are critical - by and large, distribution relies on rubber, and that rubber is not going to be electric in 10 years time.

Hopefully, forceful policy can ensure it happens before environmental collapse and secondary effects like resource war achieve the same effects in less desirable ways. Fear of the latter should enable policymakers to be more ruthless about the former.

> before environmental collapse

EU has less than 10% share in the CO~2 production. We are not going to make a difference even by going medieval today, and the rest of the world isn't going to care, especially as they will watch us to self-destruct.

You think radical policy is limited to internal? What happens if I don't trade with you unless you verifiably stop cutting down your rainforest? If I exclude your organisations from import unless they achieve some audited environmental standards, adopt EVs etc. Being a rich trading bloc like the EU can certainly have important and deliberate externalities.

Now do historic emissions, give all countries the right to develop and then the EU should very much cut it's future emissions for things to even out at all.

What does rubber mean in this context?

The deadline is for cars and light commercial vehicles, not for heavy goods vehicles, which is what industry uses for nearly all distribution.

Long term deadlines are there to be a problem to handle for future politicians, not those currently in power.

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