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Comment by ryanSrich | Hacker News Reader

That might be the case if supply was even close to demand, but at least in most parts of the US the demand outweighs the supply by several orders of magnitude. I don't see prices going down. They might go flat, but they'll never be lower than they are right now.

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Let me guess, you never lived through 2008?

A friend of a friend just sold his condo in a Bay Area at a loss. Prices have dropped from their highs.

Your friend bought and sold a condo in the same year or so? Maybe I'm interpreting this wrong.

Cause the transaction costs alone are about 10% on a home sale, so it's not something you want to treat like switching apartments every year when they jack up the rent 10%, even if the general rental market doesn't call for such an increase (they know most people won't want to deal with moving, deposits, etc).

Your friend bought and sold a condo in the same year or so? Maybe I'm interpreting this wrong.

Cause the transaction costs alone are about 10% on a home sale, so it's not something you want to treat like switching apartments every year when they jack up the rent 10%.

Bought in 2019, now worth ~5% less, not even counting transactions costs.

Condos took a big hit in SF during Covid. Starting to recover, but now with increasing interest rates, it may be a while.

Depends on the neighborhood. Arguably, bay area prices peaked in October of 2015, and have been flat or down slightly. If you convert housing prices to $/square foot, it hit and has been flirting with the "magic psychological price point" of $1000/sq ft price for a long time. There are many exceptions to the rule (of course) but you can see prices racing up to a city-wide average of $1000/sq ft and then flattening out quickly if you look at a graph.

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