Ukraine fears a long war might cause West to lose interest
apnews.com
apnews.com
A war that ends, let's say, tomorrow, is not that good. If Russia wins, than it is monumentally bad for the West. If Ukraine wins (say Putin is ousted and the soldiers in the war zone refuse to continue to fight), then it's good for the West, but Russia lives to fight another day. That day could be 2 or 3 or 4 decades in future, but it's going to be a scary day.
The West prefers Russia to get so tired after this war, to lose the war appetite for many decades to come, like Germany and Japan after WWII.
'Sanctions' hit as hard back home as they do in Russia.
Oil prices are outrageous and that hits hard across the board.
Putin will now practice Gas Pipeline Threats Diplomacy as the EU goes into panic trying to get energy from elsewhere.
'Big Business' has been pushing hard to 'end this' - they want to 'unpause' their businesses before they're lost forever.
There's a lot of pressure on leaders to 'End It' and big business doesn't care about 'The Donbas' so much, or the geostrategic issues about Putin.
Source on this, please? At least in the US, they're experiencing economic problems due to the pandemic and its effects rippling through all social and business strata, not sanctions.
It's certainly not all due to this war, but to pretend it's not had any impact is ridiculous. We're feeling it, and just look at the search trends in the West for Ukraine War related terms and you can see we have clearly lost our interest (or appetite).
McDonald's is losing hundreds of restaurants, Volskagen is losing one of their most rapidly growing markets.
It's being replaced by a Russian chain and it's unlikely Russians will care that-that much in the end.
Russian import revenues have skyrocketed.
Tourism is going to be down in Europe, the financial services profits for all those Russian zillions will move from London to Dubai.
Where sanctions can hurt is for strategic things, like obviously aircraft, and Russia doesn't make great autos and parts will be hard to come by so they will have to adjust. But they probably will.
Russian economy will probably downgrade 10% this year but it's not something that will crash the economy.
Putin can blame NATO and that's that.
FYI the US is not very tied to Russia economically, it's mostly the EU.
The Oil Price shock is triggered by the war, even though it's not directly a supply chain issue, it obviously affects every American.
Oil Producers around the world - including the USA will do well from that.
EU doesn't produce a lot of Oil.
I mean Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan all demonstrated how the West/USA is in it for the long term.
Im not saying that the USA has had the moral high ground in the past few wars it participated in. Certainly not in Afghanistan (I think in Vietnam the case was less clear cut). But if the argument that the USA enters wars to spread freedom and democracy was ever true, it's in Ukraine.
Well, we know this isn't true this time either. If it seems like "this time is different" that just means there is a knowledge gap.
Think about this way, because of increased Muslim population, European countries have started to distance themselves from Israel. Why wouldn’t be the same for US?
Europeans aren’t even remotely aware of the warning call Donald Trump was. There is very little love for Europe in the US from all sides.
When I say that’s what it feels like I want you to understand that every time I ask someone who is heavily in the favor of intervening in Europe here in the US, at its core it’s almost always “because these are people like us” argument. In America the whole argument for why we should intervene in Europe relies upon a hidden assumption, the moment you make it explicit, there is absolutely no way defendable (because nobody wants to be called racist and the non-racist position would be to advocate intervening all over the world, a quite unpopular opinion in the US these days).