2) Why is it obvious that everybody would suddenly switch to not selling through the App Store?
I don’t think alternate app stores on Android are terribly successful. Maybe they are, I don’t know, but I haven’t heard about it. People stick to the defaults and what’s convenient and easily discoverable.
Such a switch would be relevant for very few people. There is no reason Apple couldn’t do it. It just wouldn’t be good or bad for them. They can be lazy.