The 10-2 is the better predictor and the more-often cited. Confusing why they used 10y-3m here
This is probably because the economist who first looked into relationship between the yield curve and recessions used 10y-3m [0]. His reasoning is that the 3m gives a better outlook of the conditions happening at the moment than the 2y.
So the 10/2 spread predicted Covid19? idk if this is a good indicator.
There's a conspiracy theory going around that the overreaction to Covid was because people wanted to hide how rough things were going to be economically.