Letter in Support of Responsible Crypto Policy
financialinclusion.tech
financialinclusion.tech
You're kind of proving GP's point here. Evading capital controls is a criminal activity, and, though this is an example of a crime that we would all agree is morally righteous, you're still arguing that cryptocurrency is good because it makes crime easier.
This is where you lose me. Cryptocurrency makes most transactions considerably more difficult, and so far, the one segment of the economy that has consistently been willing to accept those tradeoffs is the criminal world. No one is going to argue that the law is always right or that criminals are always wrong -- after all, Oskar Schindler and Aristides de Sousa Mendes were criminals -- but what you are arguing here is that it's important to retain a tool to subvert the law for when the law becomes unjust.
I'm not saying you're wrong! I just happen to believe the harm of bad crime enabled by crypto outweighs the positive effects of crypto-enabled crime, but that's a personal opinion and one that might change if the world does. People in the US make a similar argument about guns (that retaining the ability to overthrow a tyrannical government is worth the extra gun crime we have to ensure); I disagree with them, too, but I would not be so sure if I lived in eastern Ukraine today or Berlin in 1941.
Anyway, I think that cryptocurrency enables lots more non-criminal and should-be-non-criminal activity that can far outnumber the harmful-criminal activity. Perhaps it's already that way, or perhaps it will be so in the future. "In the future" is admittedly another pro-crypto cliche, but we're seeing results headed in that trajectory like the ones mentioned in the financialinclusion letter.
Also; Bitcoin isn't net negative for society and environment. Another blanket statement given without any form of evidence. Please note that the environment FUD has been refuted many, many times over.
And here you are making a blanket statement without backing it up with evidence.
Bitcoin spends more than $1M/hr through proof-of-work, https://www.crypto51.app/ , essentially out-spending any doublespenders. This is wasteful.
If the inflationary reward were reduced or eliminated, the transaction fees were more in line with the externalities. But mining budget would also drop, which means less security (which means more waiting for large transfers to gain additional confirmations).
As such, a "Bitcoin Green" fork with reduced mining rewards would be very welcome by me at least.
https://www.coindesk.com/business/2021/03/05/the-frustrating...
PoW security is a vector, and doesn't flip from secure to insecure at some specific point. A gradual reduction in mining hash rate doesn't render the chain noticeably less secure.
Feel free to fork Bitcoin and use it as an alternative. Please note that this has been done in the past, and will probably be done in the future. There is a reason why the economic majority remain with Bitcoin, even though PoW isn't energy neutral.
The network does flip from secure to insecure whenever the cost of mounting a 51% attack dips below the amount an attacker could expect to gain. Markov and Schoar [0] made a convincing case last year that as minted rewards from mining drop, the active mining pool will naturally shrink and become more and more vulnerable. PoW does not prevent misbehavior; it establishes an incentive system to encourage participants to behave properly, and that incentive is subject to realignment by market forces.
[0]: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S09213...
I mean there are plenty of countries where the idea of free trade being inherently harmful is accepted as common knowledge, but the US isn't one. Your view is one of extremism.
Maybe we need to modernize Godwin's law with "terrorism".
Whether or not their point is a good one is a separate issue.
Well, terrorism is a way of framing things; it's how the momentary victor labels the momentary loser. Cf. WW2; "terrorists" during the war became heroes when the war ended, and victory switched sides.
Cryptocurrency on the other hand, provides zero benefits, while contributing immensely to C02 emissions and global warming, which could end life on earth as we know it.
So the comparison might not turn to crypto's advantage.
Also, apparently people pay a lot of transaction fees, therefore the network must be offering at least that much in benefits.
What examples of terrorism or other illegitimate uses have been financed through Bitcoin? How much damage have they caused to society?
Even more statistics here:
https://www.techtarget.com/searchsecurity/feature/Ransomware...
Beyond that, there are plenty of inflation hedges that don't require massive damage to the environment. Look into Series I Savings Bonds from TreasuryDirect.gov. Currently yielding 9.6%. There's gold, silver, productive assets like stocks and rental properties.
I think Cryptocurrency is one of the worst hedges against inflation anyone could come up with.
Well, in the same period, there were about $900 million (edited; I had it wrong the first time, sorry).
https://www.blockchain.com/charts/transaction-fees-usd
A lower bound of the benefits provided by the network (the transaction fees paid) is 50% higher than the ransomware. I am surprised it is that low, and am sad that the scammers are so successful.
But at what point does banning something become warranted? Roads, planes, cities, and spoons are also used by criminals. And "it is better that ten guilty persons escape than that one innocent suffer."
I'd rather argue that paying ransoms should be illegal, since it amounts to directly financing criminal activity.
> gold, silver, productive assets like stocks and rental properties
I also own gold.
I live in Romania, not the US. About assets linked to my country: their value would be severely affected in a hyperinflation. Look at Venezuelan real estate: https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/historical-data?itemId...
Also, confiscations could extend to more paper assets, not just foreign money:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/12/12/venezuel...
Think about it for a second - of those $900 million in transaction fees, how many of them were transactions involving legal vs illegal activities? Anyone involved in legal activities would have a much easier time and lower fees using ACH, wire transfers and other methods.
Well, that is upsetting me. I am profoundly disappointed, but I think you have a serious point.
I will look for some more data on illegal activity. I hope the data is not accurate, but I would only be lying to myself if I refused to believe reality.
I accept that the lower bound of the value of the network does not surpass the illegal activity. But most of the volume should still be presumed innocent.
I see an estimate of $14B of volume was illegal: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency_and_crime
But that only makes up 0.15% of the total 2021 volume: https://www.wsj.com/articles/cryptocurrency-based-crime-hit-...
Thank you for your patience.
El Salvador made it a government policy to adopt Bitcoin as an official currency and it is not going too well - it remains a novelty used by just a few privileged individuals. As these technologies are not viable for everyday use, a country with unstable local currency will in reality start using USD or EUR based shadow banking instead of BTC/stablecoins. This is most recently evident in Turkey where people moved to EUR & USD after lira's collapse in late 2021.
El Salvador is frontrunning, and acceptance isn't at the levels the government had hoped, but it is still early and most people will need time to learn to adjust and find out how everything works.
What is destructive exactly?
Lacking viable uses outside of the criminal underworld and speculation, this is wasted energy. And it will only keep growing unless regulators step in.
Comparing the energy usage of a single global industry to a mid-size country is dumb. All of this fud originates from digiconomist, which also has an incentive to keep spewing this garbage. You can find a vast amount of refutations on this, but the one by Nic Carter is good:
https://www.coindesk.com/business/2021/03/05/the-frustrating...
The article you linked instead makes the argument that the Bitcoin network will use less energy in the future, because there will be less coins issued for miners. This argument is easily refuted by that the risk of a 50% attack will always require defending the network with stupid large electricity use. The verifier incentives will just shift from mining proceeds to even more ridiculous transaction costs.
[1]: https://ccaf.io/cbeci/index
[2]: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S22146...
[3]: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S18773...
What kind of legitimate use? If the answer primarily boils down to "cryptocurrency speculation, wash trading, and attempts at get-rich-quick schemes", I won't be all that impressed.
You gave numbers for criminal activity, but the original claim also included speculation. If you take that into account as well, how much do you have left then? If Bitcoin remains primarily a vehicle for transferring wealth from new investors to incumbent holders by building hype, is it really a benefit to society?
It can be solved through Pigovian taxes on externalities (carbon emission mainly). But it should apply to all industry fairly, and our energy-industry lobbyists will hear none of it.
This could be implemented through an oracle that gives the current price to the protocol.
"Apolitical" in this context seems to mean "I agree with its politics".
Also; the environment not being worth worrying about is not a political idea that Bitcoin encodes; it simply uses Proof of Work because there is no alternative to it that has the same characteristics.
Bitcoin isn't a deflationary currency. It's emission is deflating to 0, after which it is neither inflationary nor deflationary.
Apolitical means it doesn't enforce you to do things because politics demands it of you; only because the protocol enforces it. Want to change the protocol? Feel free to build an alternative and spend your time convincing people to use it.
That the system of Bitcoin users could not exist without that impact is literally what I mean by encoding that political idea.
> It is regulated by the economic majority.
That definitely sounds political. Why not a democratic majority?
Why is the protocol defined like it is? Could it be... politics, perhaps? What kind of things does the protocol encourage, and what kind of things does the protocol discourage? Could there be a political ideology described in those things?
There is no mechanism to replace coins to which private keys have been lost. There are most certainly deflationary pressures that are being compensated for by mining new BTC, but eventually new coin minting will happen less often than coin access loss, leading to an overall deflationary system.
I would disagree pretty strongly with this. Bitcoin has been aggressively libertarian from the start, and its popularity is due in part to the political arguments made in support of its use ("monetary policy bad," "code is law," etc).
This isn't necessarily of all cryptocurrency, but Bitcoin in particular has always been part of a particular political agenda.
Yes, I’m still having this problem.
[0] https://www.euronews.com/culture/2021/12/14/garry-kasparov-l...