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It weirds me out that he's even worried about this now.

In the beginning Musk stated in interviews that he wasn't concerned about the monetary amount. I can't pull it up on my VPN, but I recall him taking the stance of it being a social-impact-y investment and not one that is designed to make a profit.

And you believed him??

His intellectual or competitive advantage is not market movement timing. Plenty of brilliant people exist who would be considered bad at making predictions over a broad field of categories, especially market timing.

More to disagree with the argument than to defend Musk. He's certainly been doing a lot of things to really undermine the brilliant-at-all-trades image.

And luck is always underrated.

I guess you got rich shorting the whole market? If the market were predictable everyone would just use it to print money.