World Bank cuts global growth outlook and warns of 70s stagflation
cnbc.com
cnbc.com
If only we get 20%+ bonds when the fed raises interest rates. Somehow, I don't think that will happen.
I've come to the conclusion that nothing short of a return to the average/mean in terms of economic output and consumption habits will help us from ourselves: inflation is already here and we're already in a recession and the notable thing is that commodities keep rising, eventually we will price out a large percentage of the population as shortages continue due to prolonged and potential conflicts that were only possible because of a need to seek Russian oil or cheap Chinese labour in order to maintain this perpetual growth model.
I'm sickened that this is my generation's (Millennial) 3-4th 'once in a Lifetime' economic crisis and the last one in 2008 has yielded lower life expectancy and lower standard of living while oligarchs keep amassing more and more capital that create these bubbles in the first place.
If 70s standards of living are what are projected at least let the West decouple entirely from Russia and China and ramp up and onshore the production of renewables, and invest further into Aerospace because at least then we will have something to show for our immense amount of crisis-laden existences so that we can point to and say 'well at least we got a foundation we can build upon.'
I'm over a consumption based economy, it's pathetic and shallow way to exist which leads to ecological perils: sadly it is, along with an often fake social media presence, the only refuge for most my age for any self-validation as they deal with perpetual forms of events that destabilize them further and have robbed them of most of the hallmarks of adulthood for earlier generations: homes, children, established careers, modest savings.
Gen Z is really the one who I think will be the one to pay the price of all of this, too. If the loudest voices are to be believed they are leaning hard toward Socialism, Marxism and Communism and given what we are seeing with the CCP I think they should get some perspective of what that kind of World looks like: Tibet, Hong Kong, Macau, Xinjiang with Taiwan in the cross-hairs.
Even the World bank is making it clear that the proxy War with Russia in Ukraine is of vital importance and, can you imagine if China invades Taiwan what that will do to Global Stability:
> To reduce the risks of history repeating itself, the World Bank urged policymakers to coordinate aid for Ukraine, counter the spike in oil and food prices, and set up debt relief for developing economies.
Firstly the Federal Reserve has committed to severely raising rates over the next year(s) to combat inflation. This is going to help things tremendously. With that said it's going to remove liquidity from the economy at large which is going to hurt vulnerable people which rely on liquid cash flows to support their real spending needs (rent, food, ect...). Without sounding cold it could be argued that financing the vulnerable classes this way is part of what got us in this mess to begin with but I'll leave that alone.
How is it exactly that we might, "decouple from Russia/China?" We live in a global economy. We can't stop incentives from developing which allow China to compete in the global labor economy without what is effectively, "post-Westphalian" war tactics being employed. We could use our military to call bullshit on China's devaluation of its own currency and the like but what would this accomplish? World War? Do you see my point? Try to see the, "what" and not the, "why." I don't see how investing in aerospace presents an obvious solution to some problem but I agree that we need to find some way of going back to leading the world in scientific innovation if we're ever able to regain our former stature. Couldn't hurt I suppose.
You're over a consumption based economy? I can see what you're getting at but what's a viable replacement? Who exactly are the, "loud" voices arguing for Communism or Marxism exactly? It seems that if anything the world is turning to right-wing authoritarianism. Look at Bolsanaro in Brasil, Orban in Hungary, Trump in the United States, Modi in India, Lukaschenko in Belarus (...). China's ascendency has largely been fueled by a movement AWAY from traditional Marxist values. The Chinese are closer to, "Neoliberalism without restrictions" than any form of real Communism or Socialism. I think it may be very foolish to consider the, "attitudes of young people" in this mostly abstract sense. In the 1960's it was assumed young people tended toward, "Pinko" causes because of the outgrowth of youth culture but as history and culture have shown that this was mostly paranoia. It's especially worth noting that, "homes, children, established careers, modest savings" are things that have been a privilege historically. The narrative that the previous generations could, "get a job and buy a house" is misleading and ignores important social contexts'. I think it's entirely possible that a cross-section of young people buys into this narrative primarily because their parents and grandparents were PRECISELY the small cross section of the public which found itself, "middle class gilded" in the post-war period anyway. I don't see many Black and Latino kids complaining about these problems as much upper middle class white kids; the irony being that it's the kids that were expected to end up, "rich" anyway who are most disaffected by the lack of opportunity. Sounds like bullshit to me.
I think it's very unlikely that China has any real intention of invading Taiwan. They'll have learned from Ukraine. It will be a disaster and it will make China a global pariah and China wouldn't be resilient enough at this stage to support itself without a heavily subsidized export economy. That's just the thing though-- there's a body of literature to suggest that the, "Thucydides Trap" may not apply to the containment of China and that rather the real threat is a socially and economically stagnant China using Taiwan as a last ditch effect to re-invigorate a sense of nationalism in the general and especially older population. There's been comment though that this might not work as, "Chinese grandmas don't want to send their only grandsons to die in Taiwan." (quote from Michael Beckley)
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/24/china-great-power-unite...
To your last point these all seem like reasonable things. I don't see why you've included them.
Disgruntlement in a system is the first step in disruption, if it worked, than it wouldn't need disrupting. Giving up hope that it can work is also a per-requsite for even attempting to do something, you can't have one without the other.
> Firstly the Federal Reserve has committed to severely raising rates over the next year(s) to combat inflation.
From J Powell to Ben Bernakie these clowns have shown how their forced modeling of the economy always leads to these disastrous situations, I do fintech for a reason after having to focus an inordinate amount of my time since 2006 studying Global economics while doing my undergrad in biology and it's SPECIFICALLY because I regard these people as corrupt as they are duplicitous that I have no faith in this system: J. Powell just got caught for insider trading [0] and people act surprised: my real shock is that people still believe anything they say is true.
> You're over a consumption based economy? I can see what you're getting at but what's a viable replacement?
Honestly, it starts by deccoupling from fiat based currencies entirely for one, you cannot run massive deficit spending without the ability to create (and thus inflate) a currency into oblivion which is only possible because you have the monopoly on violence in your self-imposed dominion over a territory/People. Just having competing currencies is a net boon to humanity. The legislation landscape will reflect the values of the those who live in said communities. I foresee the collapse of the nation-state model in my lifetime, and the Balkanization of the World into city to micro-states may make things manageable.
Also, a new paradigm would have to accepted wherein the infinite growth paradigm are not aspirational (until we can colonize other planets and sustain Life off of Earth) but rather counter intuitively as a form of cancer that leads to the environmental issues we all seeing, and living with and know are having an immense impact on Earth which leads to a latent form of existential dread.
As a former founder this is contrary to everything that made me want to even try to create a startup as I was the first to market and even beat Apple to Market on a feature, but as I went on I realized that the enormity of the core problem I was trying to solve for (carbon sequestration via previously illegal commodity crop cultivation) wasn't even a tech problem or just a finance one: it was at it's core a Human issue in how they engage with the World, primarily consumption based lifestyles to offset the existential dread one feels from a seemingly detachment from reality given the need to be apart of a cyclical model that creates the very problem it is trying to solve: ranging from decade based economic crisis to environmental.
I think that startup life taught me a lot, and the most critical was that only if I was really successful that I wouldn't be needed any more.
That is how I think one should approach life in the 21st Century, get together with like minded people to solve an immense problem that you collectively feel passionate about, dedicate your Life to it as much as possible when you're young and idealistic and quite frankly reckless. This is the only way I think we can undo even a fraction of the issues we have inherited from the damage done from the 20th Century based economics of extinction.
To achieve this we'd need a UBI and and a level of AI and ML to be at achieve levels of efficiencies for most goods and services that are simply not possible right now: I study AI and ML because I have a diverse work history that spans Tech, logistics, and Biology/Agriculture/Culinary (I see them all as the same thing).
I've realized that even in achieving my goals with my startup and playing a part in essentially reversing absurd legislation at the nation-state level and creating a lucrative Market for a safer form of pain management and anxiety than what Big Pharma could offer at a time when the opioid crisis has hit jaw dropping levels of misery and death as direct result of this business model it still didn't hit at the core of the issue. The hemp Industry never matured beyond the MVP (CBD) and hasn't ventured out of it's safe space where 'the money is being made.' The point was to make provide for a business model that could allow for carrying the costs in using hemp based products in seemingly unprofitable endeavors until market product fit could be achieved: but after the green rush mentality set in after 2012 it attracted the worst people and led to consolidation which maximized for profits not progress.
I won't get into the geopolitics, because that will take much longer to discuss, in short I was in Ukraine in the Fall of '21 and no one believed Russia was going to invade either including locals. I was certain that by November it was absolutely going to take place given how the proxy war with Poland and Belarus took place and that it would be a humanitarian crisis as Hungary shut the border down and logistically speaking it would be as bleak as it has been. I'm glad the resistance has been better than expected and it has been a valiant effort thus far in defending Ukraine from this war crime based invasion.
I make the point about Gen Z because as the saying goes 'it's easier to make strong children, than it is to heal broken men.' I've given up on my generation and the previous ones because those of us who were ever going to act already have, and most have given into pessimism and nihilism or more commonly apathy; it's a waste of my time and effort to go any further than I already have with them (I don't like the word, but I sort of mentor 3).
This requires a radical shift in a value system and the good thing is that this is a natural byproduct from what has been occurring throughout their life times, and most seem the game is not just stacked against them, it's entirely built to serve previous generations: be it 996 in China or the social nets the US cannot afford to payout past the deaths of most boomers.
The game is up it's time to admit that and start building alternatives.