China 'must seize TSMC' if the US were to impose sanctions
theregister.com
theregister.com
The good (or the bad, depends) news is that China will be shooting itself in the foot. And onto the foot of every manufacturing country ready to answer back loudly either as sanctions or trade blockades. (Assuming US doesn't do anything except looking away). Any invasion will certainly create enough chaos to halt the factories at the least - and utter destruction in the usual scheme. Besides they don't gain any trade secrets - those lie with ASML, sitting comfortably in NL. Net gain is negative for China. Factory inoperable? Check. Unnecessary war? check. Economic sanctions & international pariah? check. CCP politburo members sure see this forecast in their calculus.
Semiconductor production is moving closer to being reality in US, for all the obvious geopolitics & supply chain. Invasions or plans thereof will have no bearing on their deployment, rather pace it faster.
For the rest, i fully agree it will be borderline chaos.
They can't even manage COVID with their propaganda.
> is moving closer to being reality
This article has less to do with TW soverignty but US/PRC tech war. Chen explicitly already presumes rebellious TW to be Chinese territory and TSMC to be a Chinese company under hostile governance that's giving up crown jewels to the enemies (western efforts to get production off island). Proposal is stating the obvious: current sanctions has trapped PRC a few nodes behind. If US tries to increase the gap via additional sanctions before they reshore substantively, PRC can deter by threatening to deny US access to TW expertise and IP to cripple nascent efforts to reshore (via force). It's short term signally that if US goes full out on severe PRC tech sanctions (i.e. Russia tier), forget getting any TW experts to help spin up Arizona fabs. It's recognizing that both sides need time, PRC needs 5-10 years to build indigenous sanction proof supply chain and US needs as much time to reshore from TW (CHIPS act projects account for like 5% of current TSMC production), but if US tries to make things too difficult for PRC, PRC will spoil US efforts as well. It's trying to maintain current status quo that works / doesn't work in anyone's favour.
Proposal essentially within bounds of strategic thinking in PRC circles. TLDR is short/medium term US via origin tech controls has leverage during peacetime via sanctions. But PRC has leverage during war time simply because they can destroy TW and in worst case scenario, East Asian semi supply chain. Yeah PRC will suffer, but most of semi production profits goes to western companies, and has disproportionate knock on affect in advanced western industries, like 10s of trillions in productivity for short/medium term. Ultimately she's being polite and ignoring the raze TSMC to the ground option - PRC's mutually assured destruction card to reset everyone to 2000s tech for a few decades. Meanwhile PRC is one of the few countries, if not only, trying to create a wholey indigenous semi supply chain, even if stuck a few nodes behind. It's resetting the gap to same level if not in PRC favour. As for whether she's serious, the interview was posted on guancha not global times. At least in terms of threat/messaging (directed at US), it's somewhat serious. Like her opinion isn't controversial, but it is someone with visibility saying quiet part out loud.
If a war ever broke out, I cannot say how many will suffer - but it is for sure PLA won't absolutely have it easy. Their military planners know it. In the long run, economic powers do not see win/loss in nationalistic optics. It is purely an economic calculus. And Taiwan will be a major misstep for China militarily.
TBH I don't see an impossibility of reunification in future whenever this topic has come up. It won't be marked with blood, but coercion, if at all. Taiwanese have a strong sense of identity and that is not going anywhere by any kind of subjugation. The calls for reunification is being seeded as a joint wealthy future by few fringe Taiwanese leaders, if recent political dialogue is observed. Militarily, a war here is a lost cause for PRC, when you could slowly 'boil the frog'. As I said, every military planner would keep emotions aside and take it as a calculation.
With respect to reunification, IMO the way cross strait culture is diverging, it will be politically impossible for generations. Like current anti-PRC youth would need to be displaced by another generation more susceptible to PRC overtures (unlikely, given how demographics shaping up - especially low TW birthrate to displace voting power of current gen sentiment), that's something beyond the timeline of current Sino-US competition. Drastic actions is about mitigating damage over next 5-15 years when neither US or PRC has full control over indigenous semi supply chains. Next 10 years is the "decade of concern" where force balance will continuously move in PRC favour while US reorients capabilities. Meanwhile status quo is being shaken by relevant players, and calculation is changing accordingly. A war is as much crisis as opportuniy. More than reunification, deterring/defeating US military that has sustained TW's autonomhy is just as large political victory. That's why PRC keeps referring TW as a "card" being played by US over Sino-US competition. Ultimately it's about deterring/winning against US meddling/containment for good, in every domain. Calculations are for that goal for short/medium timeline, long before any viable political shifts towards peaceful reunifcation.
This is either a nonsense article or the speaker is saying nonsense to appease a domestic constituency. The only thing I can think of is Xi's upcoming Hong Kong visit.
Raising hackles over moot agreements, one from which the U.S. withdrew, the other which is dead.
Bang - case dismissed.
And the TPP was ratified (as the TPP11) without the U.S. Should we now consider all of Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam anti-China? I don't think China gets any warm fuzzies from Australia and Japan, but what about all the rest? In any event, what does China expect when its official industrial policy is to milk trade agreements for all their worth without relinquishing any markets to outsiders.
OTOH, conflating (as this Register article does) the proposals of some Chinese economist, no matter how domestically renowned, with official Chinese policy definitely smacks of alarmism and, perhaps, anti-China bias.
Just knowing something is possible is often a great breakthrough to advancing understanding
If it were total destruction, my money would be on artillery. Wikipedia says the range for modern artillery is 15-300km, which gives a very wide radius in which artillery could be hidden (ignoring local geography). If the artillery was preemptively dialed into the fab, it could be fired at very short notice, and I don't think anyone would be able to stop the shells mid-flight.
That being said I'm sure the real risk is the Chinese capturing the machines-- it is acknowledged they are about 15 years behind the state of the art.
Turn on humidifier.
Leave the area!
Just look at history with operation Paperclip where German rocket scientists surrendered to the Allies. Those German scientists formed the core of NASA.
Mao Tse-tung, a devoted reader of Sun-tzu and of Chinese history generally, knew the importance of this law. In 1934 the Communist leader and some 75,000 poorly equipped soldiers fled into the desolate mountains of western China to escape Chiang Kai-shek’s much larger army, in what has since been called the Long March.
Chiang was determined to eliminate every last Communist, and by a few years later Mao had less than 10,000 soldiers left. By 1937, in fact, when China was invaded by Japan, Chiang calculated that the Communists were no longer a threat. He chose to give up the chase and concentrate on the Japanese. Ten years later the Communists had recovered enough to rout Chiang’s army. Chiang had forgotten the ancient wisdom of crushing the enemy; Mao had not. Chiang was pursued until he and his entire army fled to the island of Taiwan. Nothing remains of his regime in mainland China to this day.