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Comment by yieldcrv | Hacker News Reader

A) commentary on price trends are always hyperbolic

B) outside of crypto assets, 20% downwards in a month is a crash in every asset class

> outside of crypto assets, 20% downwards in a month is a crash in every asset class

When a product in demand moves from prototype into mass production, the price drops rapidly. That isn't a crash. The expected price is to get close to DDR4.

> commentary on price trends are always hyperbolic

for example, many financial publications will write the exact same thing for a 2% intraday price movement

there is nothing to explain or rationalize or correct, its hyperbole

I think its interesting, to know about prototyping to mass production, but is or isn't a crash? okay. shrug. its a waste of time to split hairs over that, its hyperbole.

> its a waste of time to split hairs over that, its hyperbole.

It's fine that you don't care about the difference, but for people that aren't particularly in touch with the computer components market it's very useful to point out the difference between a stable price plummeting below the norm and a brand new price plummeting toward the norm.

Yes, good context

In the context of semiconductors, isnt everything inflated and would plummet toward a historical norm with little regard to newness? for now

Everything's a bit inflated right now but we're most of the way back to normal for consumer computing parts.

B - Memory is a 'class of product', DDRx is just the model.

A few people will buy the 2022 Ford-Model-X for a premium at launch, but once they've bought it, Ford are just selling to the people with a 2010 Ford who just want to upgrade to what's in the new catalogue.

I'm sure some of those upgraders will pick up a bargain on that onsold 2020 stock - but Ford aren't devoting resources to keep making those old models.

It is a commodity though.

If oranges drop from $5/kg to $4/kg I am not calling it a crash.

the futures traders will

If anyone was trading futures on DDR5 the price would be even lower than this level, because that's how the price always works on new types of memory.

RAM is an asset class?

Physical asset

It’s definitely not an asset. It’s near practically a consumable. It will degrade with use, and over time. It will not maintain it’s current value, let alone increase in value.

All physical assets degrade with use and only a very few increase in value in real terms.

Counterexample: guitars improve with use and age, not degrade.

Every part that the player or strings regularly touch will wear with use and eventually need to be replaced or repaired.

Strings are not the asset, they are a consumable. Many store guitars long term without strings to avoid unnecessary additional neck tension.

'Semiconductors' is a sector and it is probably appropriate to consider them as a commodity but no certainly not it's own asset class. The asset class you are looking for is 'commodities', old sport.

It's certainly a commodity right? (at least the RAM chips that get put on modules), and commodities are certainly an asset class?

This is just the financialization of the American mind

Calls on the American mind, please

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