Probably true. But there's no situation in which Russia ends up richer for having gone to war than had they not bothered in the first place. Which is to say, everyone has lost already. It's a tragedy for all parties -- and it's Putin's fault.
But yeah the pre-2014 situation would be vastly better for all sides involved. Ukraine could have taken the Belarussian or Khazak trajectory.
Taking Mariupol will seem like a walk in the park compared to trying to take Odessa.
There's no way that Odessa falls to the Russians.
Russia is corrupt through and through and cannot built new companies. If the industrial capacity is bombed, it will be useless for them.
As for Belarussia? What trajectory is it to become Putins labdog?