Hacker News Reader

Comment by cs702 | Hacker News Reader

"There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." - John Maynard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1919.

Keynes wrote that to warn about the risk of inflation in Germany and its potential consequences -- years before high rates of inflation led to the failure of the German mark, the collapse of the Weimar republic, the rise of dangerous ideologues (the Nazis), and ultimately, World War II.

If Turkey doesn't get inflation under control, it will implode.

View on HN

As far as I understand Erdogan created the situation himself and fired everybody who would disagree. I don’t think he plans to get the inflation under control.

I never said he does. In fact, I have no insight into what he is thinking or doing.

My comment is only pointing out how destructive high inflation is.

Please don't attack a straw-man.

I did not read GP as attacking a point you (haven't) made. It's merely extra information.

Please assume good faith, otherwise discussions escalate into accusations.

Good point. Apologies to the author of the grandparent comment if I misinterpreted it!

Thanks, I didn’t mean to attack you

In theory lowering interest rates is a good idea if you want to implement a debt brake but so far Erdogan never stopped deficit spending.

Big big nope. Argentina is in hyperinflation mode for over 30 years. It didn’t implode.

Economists don’t know everything. Their analyses are too mechanical.

The world is extremely complex and it's very hard to model in a lab or a computer. Economists due to this have a very hard job. Sometimes they get it right but it's not surprising their models have high errors of margin.

There is a saying, "There are four kinds of countries: developed countries, underdeveloped countries, Japan, and Argentina."

Japan — nobody knows why it grows, and Argentina — nobody knows why it doesn't.

> Japan — nobody knows why it grows

Productivity

https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/gdp-per-capita-ppp

> Argentina — nobody knows why it doesn't

I mean, Argentina's economy has grown a lot since 2002. But for the most part, they've been hurt by a large debt burden and financial mismanagement.

With Argentina having hyperinflation for so long, how have they avoided a worse fate similar to Venezuela?

Venezuela is not only almost completely dependent on oil exports (extreme price fluctuations) but it's also not agriculturally self sufficient. It's not the only country with those problems, and they're not insurmountable problems, but it requires good economic planning to be able to handle downturns in those conditions, something Venezuela didn't have.

Argentina, on the other hand, has somewhat more varied exports (though soy and corn products are a large portion) and is agriculturally self sufficient. Unlike Venezuela, which had a "export oil, import everything else" mentality, Argentina has a large degree of economic protectionism and so they do have other sectors to help supply domestic demand to some degree.

There's obviously many other factors, but those are the largest ones in my opinion.

Argentina is blessed with natural resources and vast fertile land. It is perhaps the second best piece of geography in the world in terms of natural resources and fertile land after America

The mystery is why it doesn’t grow, not why it doesn’t collapse. Inflation is a beast if people can’t get enough food. But Argentina has never had much of a problem in that respect

There are some who argue Argentina would face massive social unrest if it weren't for it's welfare programs.

"Benítez is one of millions of Argentines who survive largely thanks to soup kitchens and state welfare programs, many of which are funneled through politically powerful social movements linked to the ruling party. Almost a third of Argentine households are estimated to receive some kind of social assistance."

https://apnews.com/article/politics-argentina-buenos-aires-i...

Argentina also has vast natural resources, extremely fertile land, and very few people for a country of its size.

It can weather the storm far longer because it just doesn’t have enough resource pressure as older, poorer countries do

> If Turkey doesn't get inflation under control, it will implode.

Their geopolitical significance and NATO membership will prevent this from happening even at the cost of cementing Erdgodan's power. There is also sizable community of Turks economically anchored in Germany.

Not saying that it will be the same this time, but Turks lived with similar high inflation rates for more than 30 years from 1970s to 2000s.

>Keynes wrote that to warn about the risk of inflation in Germany and its potential consequences -- years before high rates of inflation led to the failure of the German mark, the collapse of the Weimar republic, the rise of dangerous ideologues (the Nazis), and ultimately, World War II.

>If Turkey doesn't get inflation under control, it will implode.

As others have told you, Turkey and other countries have seen very high inflation rates for years/decades without collapsing.

Your history of Germany isn't correct, either. The hyperinflation that afflicted Germany in the early 1920s did hurt the Weimar Republic and caused a lot of chaos, but it didn't collapse. Yes, the Nazis were born during the chaotic years, but it remained insignificant as the Weimar government reined in inflation. By the late 1920s Germany was growing again and showed every sign of again becoming Europe's industrial leader. The Nazis took power in 1933, during the worldwide economic depression.

As will the U.S.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com