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> startups are crap deals

Not always. Get in at a 200+ engineer startup that is still growing, has a huge TAM, moat, lots of velocity, and a clear path to IPO, and you've got a pretty good shot at making great money. This is a good sweet spot for risk and reward.

Try to model the outcomes yourself.

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In general, you won't have enough information to accurately model this yourself, IMO. You might increase your edge, but you're still basically getting lottery tickets.

Personal experience working at a startup with massive growth, moat, took Softbank money in 2014 before it was infamous, stuck in series D. You can model all you want but it's still lottery.

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