This is one of those instances where everybody screams for a market crash and we may just not get it. Too many people are positioned to benefit from a crash right now, which is exactly why it's not going to happen.
there is an ocean of opportunity, it's just that investing in it is less likely to maximize alpha and more likely to benefit all our children and grandchildren at some immediate financial risk to ourselves and direct dependents
Roughly 1/3rd of America is over 55+ [1], the highest it's ever been (I believe), and the average baby boomer retirement savings are ~$200k [2]. Asset prices falling is an existential and imminent danger for these people. If prices stop rising, they will have to be supported directly by family or the state, or go out onto the street.
For every working-age HN commenter calling for blood to run through Wall Street to be able to buy a starter home, there are just as many people terrified of the future.
[1] https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2...
[2] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/average-retirement-savings-ba....
[2 alt] https://www.fool.com/retirement/2021/08/24/heres-baby-boomer...
Even with Social Security payments however I still think a sharp fall in home prices or stock prices would be catastrophic for the retiring generation.
[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/09/03/social-se...
[1 skip paywall] https://archive.ph/OaBIv
EDIT: changed social security going from "bankrupt" to "cutting payments"
Longer term, I'm pretty confident you're incorrect.
The Fed is looking at the wage increases in the economy (which are blunting the effects of commodities inflation on the consumer) along with unionization drives and will definitely be hitting the brakes hard on the economy.
So for example:
"Fed Governor Christopher Waller says he's prepared to take rates past 'neutral' to fight inflation"
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/fed-governor-christo...
But to really throw the brakes on the economy the yield curve should actually invert and short rates should be at least 3-4% or more.
And I disagree with the title article that the recession is likely to be "mild" since the Fed is going to introduce significant amounts of pain and things like CMBS are pretty much primed to detonate and create a financial crisis (along with the likelihood of a massive crypto collapse). If the Republicans take over congress that will also create a lot more excitement than in 2008 since many of the Tea Party Republicans are ostensibly against bailouts and TBTF and will see economic chaos as a way to damage Biden.
Good cop, bad cop: "Bullard says U.S. Fed could cut rates in 2023, 2024 once inflation under control"
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/international-busin...
given the rise in wages and overhang in jobs i don't think getting inflation under control will be easy.
"US fed could cut rates in 2023, 2024 once the economy has been pushed into a deep recession" is how I read that statement.
Yup - the growth the past 2 years has been great. Up 33%!
Over the past 5 years, 70% growth.
Looking at short timelines doesn't tell you much. There's some fear in the investment world, but the market is not "the economy." It's more of an indicator of what's going on in the minds of investors. They might think we're already in a recession, or are heading towards one, that doesn't make it so.