The article is not in disagreement with the thought that Free Federal Money displaces other sources.
Also, the article does not show why tuition has risen 1200% instead of 30%.
The article is not in disagreement with the thought that Free Federal Money displaces other sources.
Also, the article does not show why tuition has risen 1200% instead of 30%.
Enrollment at UC wouldn't change if it were free -- it will always be ~9% of graduating seniors.
But they also guarantee that they will admit 9% of state grads.
It’s not clear why a minor change in mechanics would lead to such a significant change in incentives.
Also, note that the relationship is non-linear: Suppose it really is constant dollars and constant costs and it really costs $10k/quarter/student and look at the numbers: $511/quarter in 1987, $2,848 in 2015--a 30% drop in funding leads to a 557% increase in tuition.
https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/college-tuition.htm
I can't fully tell here how much of this is the non-linear relationship you identified vs BLS not compensating for all financial aid and other reductions to create an actual net student cost.