Comment by protoman3000 | Hacker News Reader

Comment by protoman3000 | Hacker News Reader

What I wish I would have read in an article written by somebody who “covers issues broadly related to infectious diseases, including outbreaks, preparedness, research, and vaccine development”:

> Could the worldwide inoculation with fairly new mRNA vaccines be an impacting factor in this development? “No, that is unlikely” says [Renowned authority in immunology], “because [plausible reasons]”

What I instead got regarding this direction was:

> (null)

Don’t get me wrong, I am fully vaccinated and still recommend it to everybody.

But I do see the tendency of distrust against the new vaccination techniques rising in my surrounding since everybody is getting sick all the time now. Especially since this development didn’t show in the first opening after the first (or second for some) wave before vaccinations were available for wide audiences.

Please, tell them it’s not the vaccines. Discuss it, convince them, give them the truthful impression that their choice to trust in science and the government was not bad. Their doubts are honest and it must be allowed to doubt and to demand to see convincing evidence. Don’t write doubters off as heretics.

This must be talked about and refuted.

You're right that this should get talked about, simply because it's the sort of thing that some people will wonder about. That said, I'm pretty sure "everybody getting sick all the time" has basically been the expected outcome of since about winter 2020 or earlier.

After the lockdowns where started, rates of non-covid-19 respiratory diseses dropped, and the flu in particular was a lot less common, dispite a poor flu vaccine and uptake. Ever since the winter of 2020, the doctors in my country have been warning us that the flus could be particularly nasty as people stopped social distancing/masking/etc.

I would enjoy an explanation of the rise and timing of excess “all cause” mortality in Australia.

I’m happy not to believe this website, but I need more than “shut up, conspiracy theorist” to get there.

https://metatron.substack.com/p/australia-begins-to-reap-wha...

So we have to disprove the claims of any random blog?

When that blog makes a claim based on official death data, yes.

That’s how science works:

- Person A makes claim X

- Person A then points to data consistent with that claim X and which seems to contradict claim Y

- Person B who supports claim Y needs to explain how that data doesn’t contradict claim Y

In this case:

Claim X — COVID vaccines were not safe

Claim Y — COVID vaccines are safe

That author just put a line on a time series graph and said the event that occurred somewhere near that line is the cause of the change. Thats not a claim based on official data, thats not even a valid attempt at analysis.

Let me plot a time series of temperature by day. Now I'll draw a line where we see firework sales increase massively. Then after that point, temperature increases consistently. Science, official data, etc. No lies here. But now lets claim.... shooting off fireworks increases the temperature of the Earth causing the temperature to rise until the fall/winter. Now you need to expend resources disproving me.

You used that example, but it’s not accurate:

If you excluded the reverse, that temperature caused the spike (as they did by showing the COVID curve didn’t account for the excess deaths), then that would be an argument worth refuting.

No, please let's not raise the idea that metatron.substack.com's non-expert interpretation of data is a waste of valuable expert time!

Wait, I should look at the author's (Joel Smalley) self-described qualifications before getting snarky:

Pro bono COVID data analysis for legal challenges and independent media seeking the truth (e.g. Dr Tess Lawrie's letter to the MHRA - https://bit.ly/3FZxpU7 and Robert Kennedy's book - https://amzn.to/3nMd2mK), shared publicly "for the greater good". https://substack.com/profile/30382446-joel-smalley

Yes, it is a waste of time. A reasonable presumption is that people are morons or liars unless shown otherwise.

I got it: you can only make ad hominems, not address facts about Australia’s death numbers.

> A reasonable presumption is that people are morons or liars unless shown otherwise.

Is that confirmed when the only argument those people offer is ad hominems?

In a world where the virus kills and the vaccines work what would you expect to see otherwise? In other words, for me, if the vaccines work and the virus kills I'd expect to see the same graphs.

Also, you can look at other countries and see if your theory holds up.

Here's Australia

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-deat...

Here's USA

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-deat...

Here's Japan

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-deat...

Here's South Korea

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-deat...

Here's Taiwan

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-deat...

What am I supposed to be seeing in that data?

There are strange surges in US, Aus, and Taiwan, but not in the other two — but they undertook different vaccination campaigns.

> In other words, for me, if the vaccines work and the virus kills I'd expect to see the same graphs.

Well no — that doesn’t explain why the “all cause” mortality surges in Australia disconnected from the COVID deaths.

Even if we were undercounting the COVID deaths, we’d expect the phase of the waves to match, which is disputed by the first graph on that website (which compares COVID and all cause mortality across all sexes/ages.)

Just in case you are asking in good faith.

If you look at the same data release, the excess deaths are almost entirely in cancer and dementia in old people (with the exception of a spike in diabetes at the same time as the spike in COVID infections likely due to it being a significant comorbidity).

So whilst I m sure the higher excess deaths in Australia is difficult to explain (as there is probably a multitude of factors). The theory that somehow the vaccines give people dementia or cancer (which have not been associated with COVID or the vaccine) AND these usually relatively long term diseases go on to kill them within a 2-4 month period AND this only happens to old people for some reason AND other countries have not observed a similar pattern despite the vast number of vaccines given, seems highly unlikely.

In addition, assuming the author is referring to the UK ONS, our public health body does release excess mortality estimates on a weekly basis - and unsurprisingly they correlate with the waves of COVID infections, not the vaccination program.

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00N...

> If you look at the same data release, the excess deaths are almost entirely in cancer and dementia in old people

This doesn’t explain the correlated surge in the 45-64 bucket, the last two charts in the link I posted.

> unsurprisingly they correlate with the waves of COVID infections, not the vaccination program

Do you have a source?

What you linked takes me to some generic description of the dataset.

> correlated surge in the 45-64 bucket, the last two charts in the link I posted.

Correlated surge is an absurd way to describe something that basically fluctuates around 0 over the course of a year, which makes me think this definitely isn't good faith.

> What you linked takes me to some generic description of the dataset.

I recommend clicking the buttons on the side, it's a dashboard.

Interesting.

An increase in dementia and cancer is exactly what contrarian scientists and researchers fear as potential long-term side-effects of breakdown of spike protein in the body (amyloid plaque deposits), and dysregulation of the immune system due to mRNA treatments (host immune system not fully-functioning results in ineffective disease suppression across the board).

An emerging thesis explaining diverse pathology in post-covid / post-vax (let us call it post-spike exposure) is that breakdown of spike protein results in beta-amyloid plaque deposits in the body, which leads to Alzheimers, systemic amyloidosis, fibrogenesis.

Other mainstream research is now also converging on this idea. [1]

One of the original researchers who appears early on this discussed it in the last few days with one of the DRASTIC researchers Jay Couey: "Amyloidogenesis of the Spike Protein" [2]

Jay has an interesting 10 minute monologue just prior to the interview which is also worth viewing. [3] He summarises the industry dogma (and why it's flawed) in a succint way: "Seroprevalence to an epitope is taken as a correlate of immunity to a pathogen on which that epitope is found. And if this mechanism is part of immunity, it is a small fraction of the total immune response..."

In terms of UK all-cause mortality data, Fenton's analysis has been very interesting. Also interesting to see him suddenly cast out of respectable society once he decided something was very off with the statistical analysis going on. [4]

[1]: https://medicalxpress.com/news/2022-05-discovery-mechanism-m...

[2] https://www.twitch.tv/videos/1310649065?t=0h34m9s

[3] https://www.twitch.tv/videos/1310649065?t=0h23m58s

[4] http://www.eecs.qmul.ac.uk/~norman/papers/inconsistencies_va...

> No, that is unlikely” says [Renowned authority in immunology], “because [plausible reasons]”

You would like to see your preconceived conclusion in print without any evidence for its proof yourself ? I’d prefer evidence either way regardless of the conclusion

Presumably [plausible reasons] involve things like studies and data.

If it helps you, inflation is also not caused by mRNA vaccines.

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