Occupancy sensing is also extremely difficult to do passively in any kind of reliable scenario, especially when your occupancy sensor is limited to a single location in the house.
I've frequently seen two broad categories around regulating HVAC systems: 1) People keep a fairly regular schedule, and a standard 7-day programmable thermostat works sufficiently.
2) People keep a very non-regular schedule, and a standard programmable thermostat doesn't work, nor is there any inferable pattern to their home/away schedule.
In case #2, it is usually more beneficial to get home/away status from something with a more direct output eg: a burglar alarm system, vehicle presence detectors in the garage (photobeams), status of lights, etc.
I'll be very curious to see what the real-world reactions are to the Nest thermostat. If they can come up with some truly creative solutions it could be a really cool device.