The point is the homeowner saves money from day one, not even taking into account current rebates.
The utility bill savings more then compensate for the extra $60 in the monthly loan payment.
Most solar panels come with a 25 year warranty.
The utility bill savings more then compensate for the extra $60 in the monthly loan payment.
Most solar panels come with a 25 year warranty.
Edit: I'd love to put solar in my house. We have a rebate in my country as well, but I'm sure I can use the money better in the short term, and likely end up with a more efficient setup for less money if I wait. Until then, geyser blanket, install LED's in the most-used light fittings, install a small geyser under the kitchen sink so it doesn't draw the full pipe's water just to wash dishes.
However, if you buy a system now and it's 10% cheaper in a year and you would have made say 3.5% on the investment [1] you'll be out 13.5% minus your electricity savings, and that's in 1 year. What about 4-5 years? Won't it be much cheaper then?
[1] I've made about 37% this year as a fairly active trader, so every cent means a margin of safety. No solar for me because I need the cash!
But when the costs converge this closely then small assumptions can tip the scale one way or the other - one % extra opportunity cost, a converter that needs replacing 5 years earlier, 10% less sunshine in one of the earlier years of the installation's lifespan, ... That said though, when you extrapolate costs of grid electricity of the last 10 years, and base your energy price scenario on that (instead of keeping up with inflation like I did), PV comes out ahead even when taking worst-case scenarios of all other variables.
Many people argue that because prices are falling so fast, it doesn't make sense to buy now. But IMO it's much more nuanced than that:
- As prices fall, so will subsidies. Already most subsidies are being phased out or decreased.
- There is a floor on the prices - in the short term that floor is just below grid parity, in the medium and longer term it will be production limits. I don't think it's rational to assume that prices will keep falling so fast.
Many words have been shed on this - I guess only time will tell. That said, like I posted elsewhere here, my parents are getting an ROI of 11% on their panels. That's mighty good for money that can be borrowed under mortgage, and 'green' == cheap mortgages for that matter. (that yield is only because of subsidies though, so it's not really a fair general case comparison).
Of course after a few years these situations will change and as more players enter the market (lured in by the high profits of the existing ones...), the downward trend will continue, without the anchoring to 'grid parity' that exists today.
When the paradigm is changing, investing is risky.
How much of "rated power" does that warranty cover?
Suppose that the power output drops 20% by year 29, what will the warranty pay? How about if the output drops 15% by year 20?
It's unlikely that the warranty will pay full replacement value. Most warrantys cover pay value, which is likely to be fairly low for 20-30 year-old PV panels. And no, they won't fix if that costs more than the "value".
(Of course, this ignores the format differences; if sata goes out of style, it could actually cost me more to source a sata part. Of course, judging from how long PATA lasted in a largely backwards compatible format, I /probably/ wouldn't have to worry about that too much in the next 10 years, but it'd be a source of worry. I'd be much more comfortable promising you 2tb of storage of some type with some minimum performance level, and not specifying interface, or selling you network-accessible storage for the next ten years.)