- If you want to minimize risk in return for higher taxes (call ~40%), just hold your ISOs and exercise-and-sell as a same-day sale when you're liquid (ie forgo the tax advantages of ISOs). There's absolutely no way for you to get screwed over if you're willing to take the gain as standard income.
The IRS is only involved at the time of exercise [1][2]. Companies are the ones making ISOs expire, versus convert to NSOs, three months following termination of employment.
[1] https://thestartuplawblog.com/incentive-stock-options-post-t...
[2] https://www.cooleygo.com/isos-v-nsos-whats-the-difference/
1. accept compensation in ISOs, likely taking a salary hit
2. exercise, and pay AMT in the exercise year on the spread
3. hold until you can sell, but at least for 12+ months so you qualify for LTCG treatment
So you get hit with a lower cash comp in (1) which is an opportunity cost. Then you have to pay taxes in (2) maybe well before the stock is ever liquid in any way. Then you still have to wait for liquidity (3).
Plus normally the company does not tell you, an ordinary employee, when its beginning fundraising. If it did, you could at least time your exercise so as to minimize spread.
Conversely if I want to take a bet on a public company which I have no relationship to, I just buy and hold. Why is it easier to get favorable treatment for a company I have nothing to do with, versus one that I helped build?
The market is what dictates this. You don't have to take a startup job.
Facebook, Google, etc. minted hundreds of millionaires when they IPO'd. It's hard for me to feel bad for people who take those risks.
I'd argue a whole lot of engineers should be much more judicious about joining startups and ask for more options. If engineers knew how to calculate startup risks better they'd probably know there is too much equity is concentrated to too few individuals (mainly founders).
They also have absolutely no idea how VC funding and the public markets for IPOs work during a bear market.
At least I can sell my RSUs for real money when they vest.
And this is precisely my point. If less IC's believed this, it would put market pressure on startups to give them more options and better outcomes (including taxes).
As OP said, it is taxing unrealized gains. It makes as much sense as making employees pre-pay 10 years of income tax when they start a job.
It would probably make good outcomes less good (companies would probably grant fewer options, or instead grant RSUs) but a much better mean?