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> Finding a good way to balance YAGNI with this-will-definitely-change-in-a-few-months-because-it-always-does is incredibly hard, and I've really appreciated working with engineers who make that prediction correctly.

Is this a generalizable skill? To me, it feels like changes are more often driven by shifting business requirements and ephemeral victories of internal political battles rather than sound technical reasons.

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Agreed. I think being able to predict what is likely to change is heavily dependent on knowing the business domain well since that is going to be the driver of change. I think it is a specific application of curiosity. It's also a matter of being forward thinking in general. I think both are skills one can foster and can apply more generally.

That's the point, though. What makes someone senior is being good at everything that isn't writing code. Such as being in tune with the business and how it's demands behave over time.

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