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Comment by greedo | Hacker News Reader

How anyone can look at how the war is going in Ukraine and think that it's any measure of success for Russia is simply not basing this in reality. Russia has already been decisively defeated in Ukraine. Their success is taking Mariupol is like if the US invaded Tijuana and then got stopped on the way to Ensenada. And what Donbas encirclement? The Russians "started" trying to encircle the Donbas in February. They've had no fundamental improvement in their position in the region since then, in fact, their facing their own issues with their defeat in Kharkiv.

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> Russia has already been decisively defeated in Ukraine.

Ugh, then the war would be over.

I think the media creates a large set of biases. Recall, much of the media around this is banned. Here are some channels / people I’d recommend for various insights:

- Military and Foreign Affairs network (former American tank operator) https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DH6i0fJHLHw

- The Duran (two Greeks, former attorneys and part of ambassador families) https://rumble.com/c/theduran

- Patrick Lancaster (crowd funded American journalist embedded with DPK militia) https://m.youtube.com/c/PatrickLancasterNewsToday

- obviously the CNN, MSNBC, and other three letter news agencies

There’s others, but those are some decent alternatives to get a general idea what’s going on.

The war isn't over because Putin doesn't care what the costs are. It's not sustainable though. Ukraine will keep fighting and the west will keep supporting it. What are Russia's options?

So sure, not decisively defeated. It's not like the entire Russian army was wiped out and Ukrainians are marching in Moscow. But still defeated for all intents and purposes and all around loss (world status, material etc.). This has got to be the dumbest war ever.

> What are Russia's options?

My prediction is that they’re going to take the Russian speaking portions of the country as they originally laid out. That’s effective up to the middle of the country. If Ukraine keeps fighting they may take Odessa and leave Ukraine without a sea port.

That’s something like 60-70% of Ukraine’s GDP btw. Russians have already captured 30% of Ukrainian GDP. I don’t think that’s a loss by any measure.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Ukrainian_subdivisio...

Wars typically last years, I don’t put much stock into 90 days of conflict. Already 20% of Ukraine is taken, most of its armaments destroyed, Russia has been targeting the west’s attempts to rearm.

> all around loss (world status, material etc

Russia is making more money than ever. They’re also looking to expand BRICS with China. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-says-it-wants-expa...

> This has got to be the dumbest war ever.

For whom? I don’t think any war is good, by definition it reduces both sides ability to produce and trade (ie hurting everyone).

That said, the Russians have their objectives and clearly thought it worth while. It’s dangerous to underestimate and not understand the motivations of an enemy.

Again, you keep making claims about "most of its armaments destroyed." This is clearly not the case, instead it should be reversed and say that the Russians have lost most of their tanks... They've lost over 1000, and with 10 per BTG, that's 100 BTGs that are without their most powerful weapons.

The Russians have also used up most of the precision guided weapons and are having to resort to using unguided bombs and rockets for the majority of their attacks. With sanctions in place, they won't be able to replace these weapon stocks due to their reliance on Western electronics.

Russia didn't go into this war trying to liberate the Donbas; and if fact most of the Russian speaking citizens of Ukraine have turned against Russia. Russia wanted the entire country and failed.

And Russia will shortly have two new NATO members on its borders. That's a huge geopolitical failure. Russia has instantly strengthened and rejuvenated NATO with its invasion of Ukraine.

But you keep pushing that Russian Success Strategy. We'll see how things pan out by August.

> Wars typically last years

This is factually inaccurate, most wars last a month, the vast majority is over in 6 months.

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