All GDP is not equal. As an example, Ireland’s GDP was ~1/3 tourism, with covid they lost that GDP.
Russia GDP is primarily raw goods, commodities. They also have a decent domestic market for manufactured goods. Look up the global production of wheat, natural gas, oil, etc and look for Russia and Belarus. To put it bluntly, USA GDP is a mix and has everything from commodities to information tech to finance. Russia is a producer of raw goods.
Commodity prices are made at the margin, meaning a 1-2% reduction in supply could cause prices to go up 5-10% (similar for the reverse).
So Russia has an outsized ability to both weather sanctions (they don’t import as much raw materials, particularly energy) AND the world must continue to purchase their goods and/or dramatically reduce in production themselves.
For instance, German energy prices are up 500% (as of feb 2022) when compared to two years prior.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1267541/germany-monthly-...
It’s now up 1000-1500%, how is German GDP going to be impacted? While Russia’s will maintain much of its GDP, Germans will likely drop substantially, as they’re effectively deindustrializing. Their factories / industries can’t function economically at such high prices.
> so the calculus for russia is losing on all fronts
I see Russia winning on all fronts tbh. They’re increasing domestic resilience and culture. They’re also winning the war in Ukraine (see Mariupol, Donbas encirclement), and winning the economic war with the west paying them even with the sanctions.
What’s their goals? To me it seems they are achieving the objectives Putin laid out at the rambling speech at the beginning of the war (independence from the west and “freeing” Russian sections of Ukraine)
I find it so interesting people think Russia is losing. I just don’t see it.