Comment by toomuchtodo | Hacker News Reader

Comment by toomuchtodo | Hacker News Reader

The last 50 years of American prosperity was built primarily on the exploitation of labor as unions declined and Capital starting consuming an outsized amount of Labor’s productivity (with a fair amount of help from globalization efforts). Until the scales tip (and there are signs we’re headed there) and labor has more power with stronger unions, people should not expect workers to take garbage jobs (even in trades when they’re non union) because of manufactured shortages or crises. There is no labor shortage, only a shortage of workers willing to take undesirable work for unreasonable compensation. Luckily (?), as labor force participation continues to decline (10k Boomers retire each day) and there isn’t an appetite to ramp immigration, labor supply constraints will continue to push up wages (but is not a long term solution for broad scale productivity equity participation versus labor organization).

https://www.jacobinmag.com/2021/09/labor-day-chart-union-mem...

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:US_productivity_and_...

https://www.epi.org/publication/how-todays-unions-help-worki...

> The last 50 years of American prosperity was built primarily on the exploitation of labor as unions declined and Capital starting consuming an outsized amount of Labor’s productivity

This is a really lazy analysis that ignores all of the productivity gains that came from automation and information technology. People who put together cars didn’t start making less money, they got replaced by robots.

They did start making less money too. Factories moved away from union dominated places to lower waged non-union states. Even the unions ended up selling out and lowered wages for new members to protect their own pay.

Between OP's analysis and your reply, there's only one I'd dare to call lazy.

Op didn’t have any analysis at all. It’s just a meme and a really old one at that.

That was an analysis? That was a lazy regurgitation of luddite talking-points that you'd hear in pubs after a few drinks.

Why do you think all the "foreign" automakers set up factories in the South? So they could avoid the cost of union-workers, or force the unions to lower their costs.

What would carpentry work have to pay before the demand is satisfied? It is my view that many people don't want to do trades at any reasonable rate. I would imagine most people my age would rather make $60k a year answering emails and doing zoom meetings than $120k going to a jobsite early every morning in any weather all year long.

So then offer improved job conditions. Shorter hours, better safety, extra pay for shitty weather days, etc.

The problem is that it takes awhile to train for the job so the labor market won’t be able to react very quickly. By the time we’re adjusting the job offering it’ll be too late.

There is no "too late". Costs will go up and more people will do it or do without

The reasonable rate is the amount of money it takes to incentivize people to do it, i.e. where the market clears.

Maybe the $60k to do zoom is too much, and the $120k to work in the early morning in the cold and rain should be $200k.

I guess we will find out soon enough.

The answer might end up being prefab housing etc. effectively replacing tradies with robots, not completely but to the point where the ones that are there get paid well.

That's a good point - maybe we really do not need all those carpenters? I live in an aparment in a building made from prefabs. All my furniture is made by machines in Ikea factories. I literally never had any need for carpenter.

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