Hindsight changes a lot of things. For one the market recovered from all previous crashes, with one major exception.
I traded through 2008. It felt apocalyptic. I got a text message from a guy at Lehman on the Monday, surprised he was now out of a job. There was a queue of people at Northern Rock.
We knew that a lot of bad things were about to come out, basically things that had been papered over to fix dotcom. The whole subprime thing was predictable, I went to a lunch at Goldman's where they basically just said it out loud, the subprime market is gonna explode and maybe take some other things with it.
But what we have now feels like it's sweeping even that under the rug. Growth didn't bounce back hugely afterwards, it's been mild. But interest rates have hit a low nobody that imagined. The whole period since 2008 has been exceptional. A lot of things that seemed like frothy excess went on for a long time. A lot of stuff that should have died in 2008 got to live.
So yeah it feels really big, but no climax thus far. No Lehman yet, and no Madoff. A couple of things sort of felt like maybe they would cascade, but didn't, eg Bill Huang's fund going down. For the GFC we had the two Bear Stearns funds going down as a preshock. Not sure if Luna really qualifies, given the amount of crazy things that happen in crypto.