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Comment by somebodythere | Hacker News Reader

If hedge funds can't reliably predict a market crash, why do you think a team of accountants at an Amazon office can? And if they could, why don't they exit their core business and get into trading stocks?

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The accountants at Amazon have material non-public information that they can't act on for obvious reasons, but if they know beforehand - for instance - that sales aren't growing as fast as they used to, or that luxury purchases are trending downward, they can forecast that their own price might slump in the next few months.

They can still buy and sell their own company, but they have to respect the black out dates.

> They can still buy and sell their own company, but they have to respect the black out dates.

Trading on specific non-public information is insider trading and is illegal at all times - even during official trading windows.

I’d be more impressed if they could predict market conditions 3+ years from now, when the bulk of the Amazon employees’ shares are actually vesting.

Maybe they can, but I think that’s a very generous assumption.

> hedge funds can't reliably predict a market crash

Hedges can predict a recession is coming, just not the timing. They have been saying it for the last 12 months.

> a team of accountants at an Amazon

Amazon hires ex-bankers to work for them. They aren't a team of accountants. It's a cushy corproate job that many bankers take. It's good to do when you don't want to hustle long hours anymore.

> And if they could, why don't they exit their core business and get into trading stocks?

What?!

The difference is between a reliable prediction and a precise and timely prediction.

It's all about timing.

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