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Comment by codefreeordie | Hacker News Reader

People all across the world are going to starve this winter.

In the rich world, probably we mostly will have plenty of food -- just not the bountiful variety that was the abundance our advanced societies created back in the days when we valued abundance. We'll pay way more for it, and those who can't afford to pay more will end up having to make do with what they can get -- but citizens of the rich world won't starve.

Elsewhere around the world, though, it will be a tragically different story. In many places, basic foodstuffs are becoming so rare and expensive that they're beyond the means of everyday people (for example, in Nairobi, where black humor memes about measuring cooking oil with a syringe have become popular: https://www.npr.org/2022/04/28/1095396921/the-rising-tides-o...).

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We still have vegetable oil shortages in German supermarkets, though we’ve at least gotten to the point where there’s always plenty of 750ml bottles of organic canola oil for 5-7 EUR, but store brand sunflower or canola oil for 3 EUR/liter gets cleared out pretty quickly, despite purchase limits.

Before Covid, store brand oil was about 1 EUR/liter.

1€ litre... Using that would be cheaper than diesel here... Sometimes considered this specially if one where to have car which accepts it relatively well...

actually, that's one of the causes of food-price inflation -- we've been increasingly using various food-supply inputs as biofuel-supply inputs, and it turns out that the energy market is willing to outbid the food market sometimes.

(It's very much not the cause, but it is a cause)

This is terrifying. Why am I not seeing coverage of this elsewhere? US media is full of stories about inflation cooling. If this is true, this should be the biggest story everywhere.

The world was already producing less food this year even before the Ukraine/Russia war, which takes a ton of wheat-producing land out of service and has also greatly reduced the availability of chemical fertilizer, which will greatly reduce yields everywhere (including in the U.S., where there is a massive fertilizer shortage going on right now).

There's also a massive energy shortage, partially due to the Ukraine/Russia war (again, it was going to be a little bit bad and then the war made it tragic), which makes every part of the food supply chain tighter as well.

For context take a look at the more tech oriented threads where people making 6 digits USD are whining about having to go to the office or similar. Then compare to the threads about how bad "things" are. Then compare to the threads about how billionaires need to do their part. Seek the disconnects. Then recognize that it has always been this way.

This is from less than a week ago [1]

> “An awful lot of people in Africa are going to starve to death because they [Ukraine] are the sole, sole supplier,” Biden said, switching between prepared and off-the-cuff remarks inside the stiflingly hot warehouse. “Putin has warships bouncing around, preventing access to the Ukrainian ports to get this grain out, to get this wheat out.”

> Biden touted White House efforts that he says will help OC Farm — a sixth-generation family farm that produces soybeans, corn and wheat — and others across the nation boost production, including by offering expanding insurance to farmers encouraging them to produce two crops in the upcoming season.

If you can, grow a garden this year (and the next, and the next).

[1] https://chicago.suntimes.com/2022/5/11/23067489/president-bi...

> If you can, grow a garden this year

What crops are optimal for a small personal garden in the US?

Depends on your goals. If you are just looking for calories, you probably can't beat potatoes. You can grow 100lbs of potatoes in a 4ft x 4ft plot. Maybe even more than that.

If you're looking at maximizing nutritional value, sweet potatoes might be a good bet. You eat the leaves and the tubers. Similarly to potatoes, you can grow a large quantity in a small area.

If you're looking for luxury items that may be hard to find in a shortage, then you have a lot of options. Though they might take more or less skill depending on the crop and climate. (Like artichokes).

if you're starting a garden,I highly recommend a tomato plant. store bought tomatoes are incredibly bland in comparison.

And seek out heirloom varieties. They might be ugly but the taste is beyond compare.

I'm somewhat new to gardening, but I have had pretty good luck over the last year or two saving seeds from veggies I buy at the store and then planting. Peppers (bell and hot), cantaloupe, pumpkin, etc. I went to a class about saving seeds and that worked out, though I've found that saving tomato seeds is even harder than people say it is.

I've planted some berries in the hopes of having some perennial fruit, and they are doing really well this spring!

It's too late to plant spring wheat, but I will be planning ahead for September-ish and getting a winter wheat "crop" in.

I am thinking that this weekend I will try to plant some sweet corn - perhaps a single seed packet if I can still find one at a garden shop.

My approach has been to try something, learn, get better. That's the best advice I can give.

Fruit trees are often prolific.

Contact your local County Extension office. They should have useful info specific to your location.

https://pickyourown.org/countyextensionagentoffices.htm

There was this concept of "victory gardens" in the past

Because it is hyperbole.

Will this affect US wheat prices?

Yes, because they are priced on the global market.

Will it mean citizens of the US will not have enough wheat to eat?

No, generally it won't, because the US doesn't import wheat at all.

https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/verify/the-russian-invasi...

Pay attention to the articles, many of them confuse global supply with exports, as if all countries need to import everything they consume. That's not true. These fluctuations will affect people and prices but the reporting is often hyperbolic and incorrect.

I was including the US among the rich countries where people won't starve, but will instead merely pay more and possibly have less choice available that they can afford.

It will be in the places where people already live close to the edge where true hunger will emerge.

That's a good point. I'm curious if those countries which aren't overwhelmed by globalization and still produce locally will be alright. As I read the articles about where wheat importing is happening, like Indonesia, China, Japan, Vietnam, I wonder if those shortages will only affect the upper class who are buying those Western goods, while people who still use rice as their main staple will be ok. I'm not sure.

The US doesn't even consume that much wheat, under 300 g per person per day. But the same inflationary factors will also impact other staple crops, as well as animal feed.

It's not important because it won't affect the US?

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