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Comment by kaba0 | Hacker News Reader

Ruble is definitely not much stronger, it’s just practically frozen so it is not defined by free market rules, but by Russian government made ones.

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Russian here. You have no point, check any exchange, in case of the accessibility Binance p2p There was growing black market exchange once ruble fallen to the 115ish to usd, and the spread was about 20%, so you could buy green cash at 150ish, but since then those exchanges shrinked.

It's actually 64 RUB per USD, Tinkoff bank sells for 67 for example. Compare to 78 pre-war. This week Central Bank lifted another restrictions and you can get up to $50k out of the country. I think unfortunately Americans drank Biden's lying kool-aid of "devastating sanctions" and happily looked away prematurely.

I have seen a lot of people write this but I don't understand how. Shouldn't there be a black market rate in that case? Is there one? Some quick Googling gave no articles.

I am almost sure there is such market. If you visit Russia somehow, you are likely to exchange currency with citizen at beneficial rates. Chances are its very similar to pre iron curtain fall - people made fortunes in Poland on such exchanges. Same thing in Cuba, there were two currencies - one local, one for internationals(unsure how it is now).

Ye. I mean just cutting out Forex middleman is beneficial.

It would be interesting to know the "real" rate to get the scope of the currency control.

No, Moscow is fine and you can buy foreign currency freely now. This is a delusion based on Western politians' loud promises which never came true. We were promised crushing sanctions that would reduce Russian economy to 1980's style rubble with black market of foreign currencies. It's all just a load of hype. It's important to set this clear because most of HN commenters seems to be under impression those sanctions actually had intended effect.

Can you buy a new car with all this money?

Yes. It's more expensive than before, but there's a thriving market on Telegram with prices fixed in EUR/USD. Also Chinese cars sales are growing and soon market will be flooded.

So second hand at black market rates. Sounds like sanctions are working after all.

There is not much use for dollars in Russia right now other than hoarding them (you can buy goods, but many imports are sanctioned). And after initial panic subsided, trust in the banking system looks quite high so people are less keen on hoarding cash.

Also, if you are an oligarch who plans to load your private plane with suitcases of dollars and fly to the Cayman islands, you are probably sanctioned, so that is out of question too.

No problem flying to Dubai to Istanbul and using their banking system. Actually most of Russian and Belarussian elite are happily using it. You can meet all kinds of adult kids of Lukashenko, Yanukovich there or an odd Russian silovik.

There are black markets in the form of Telegram chats and bots where people exchange cash. They aren't so necessary right now because certain limitations have been lifted and while it's not easy, you can buy cash USD or send wires to other countries.

There are two things holding the ruble high: 1. All exporters have to sell 80% of their FX income in 3 days 2. The import has shrunk dramatically and it's hard for people to travel to other countries (so individuals and businesses don't need that much cash to begin with)

Where do you get that? You can actually buy dollars in Moscow from banks. Everything is mostly back to normal or even better (retail banks sell dollars cheaper than pre-war levels). There was a brief panic and tight controls in anticipation of more severe sanctions but they never came.

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